After a record-breaking Tuesday debut of $35 million, "The Amazing Spider-Man" rolls into the weekend with a large built-in audience and high expectations. Also hitting theaters this weekend is Oliver Stone's "Savages," an R-rated crime-thriller featuring Benicio Del Toro, John Travolta and Blake Lively. PG concert film "Katy Perry's: Part of Me" will also get launched this weekend and will try to click with mostly younger audiences this weekend.
Even though "Spider-Man 3" was denounced by critics and much of its fan base, it was still a big commercial hit when it was released in 2007. With $890 million in worldwide revenue, "Spider-Man 3" brought in the most money in a very lucrative franchise, though fan discontent led Sony/Columbia to start from scratch with an entirely new formula.
Substituting Tobey Maguire for relatively unknown Andrew Garfield, "The Amazing Spider-Man" has all the advantages of a very strong fan base that helped it bring in an estimated $35 million on Tuesday alone. "Spider-Man" also was launched at more than 4,300 total venues this week, giving it an enormous release about the size of "The Avengers" - the only other movie to get released at 4,300 theaters this year.
Also helping is a great release schedule, as there isn't much PG-13 action competition left. With "The Avengers" and "Snow White and the Huntsman" both sliding out of the top ten, "Spider-Man" has mainstream audiences virtually to itself, which should lead to a very big six-day total. Due to a rare Tuesday release because of the holiday, "Spider-Man" probably won't come close to cracking $100 million, though it should still put up somewhere around $65 to $70 million and easily top the box office.
Aiming at older audiences this weekend will be "Savages," an R-rated thriller about warring drug kingpins. Though director Oliver Stone has made a name for himself with war-themed movies like "Platoon" and "Born on the Fourth of July," it was writing the screenplay for crime classic "Scarface" back in 1983 that gave him his start. "Savages" is slated to hit an estimated 2,800 total theaters this weekend, making it one of the widest releases in Stone's career.
Despite solid critical reviews, though, "Savages" isn't in a great opening position. R-rated drama "Magic Mike" looks like a much bigger hit than anyone anticipated, which will make it difficult for "Savages" put up a big opening weekend. The presence of "The Amazing Spider-Man" and "Ted" also won't help, leaving "Savages" a relatively small audience left to appeal to. Look for "Savages" to pull in a pedestrian $12 or $13 million this weekend for distributor Universal.
Getting a similar release size will be "Katy Perry: Part of Me." With a PG rating, "Katy Perry" will be a good fit for pre-teens, though the popular singer also has some appeal for older audiences as well. Still, concert films are very hit or miss if you're not Hannah Montana or Justin Bieber, which could make "Katy Perry: Part of Me" a tough sell despite her popularity. "Katy Perry" could take in $12 or $13 million this weekend for Paramount.
As three new releases seem headed for the top five this weekend, "Ted" and "Magic Mike" should still put up some big numbers after very impressive openings. "Ted" pulled in a surprising $54 million last weekend and has seen strong totals during the week as well, making it far and away the top R-rated hit of the year. Meanwhile, "Magic Mike" has seen a similar level of success after posting $39 million in opening revenue last weekend. Look for "Ted" and "Magic Mike" to see relatively small dips from their opening figures and to finish the weekend with very big 10-day domestic totals.
Next weekend, the release schedule will slow down, as "Ice Age: Continental Drift" is the only new title slated to hit theaters in wide release. Though not as highly touted as some other animated franchises, "Ice Age" has been a great success for Fox, with enormous worldwide revenues despite production budgets roughly half the size of Pixar releases. The following weekend, Christopher Nolan's "The Dark Knight Rises" brings a similar amount of hype as "The Avengers" and is a lock to dominate the box office well into August.
RTT Box Office Predictions for 7/6/12 - 7/8/12 (In Millions):
1. The Amazing Spider-Man (Sony/Columbia): $70
2. Ted (Universal): $32
3. Magic Mike (Warner Brothers): $21
4. Brave (Disney): $18
5. Savages (Universal): $13.5
6. Katy Perry: Part of Me (Paramount): $13
7. Tyler Perry's Madea's Witness Protection (Lionsgate): $11.5
8. Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted (Paramount/Dreamworks): $6.4
9. Moonrise Kingdom (Focus): $2.6
10. Prometheus (Fox): $2.5
by RTT Staff Writer
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