With a bevy of new titles slated to hit theaters this weekend, the most buzzed about one is the Wachowski siblings' sci-fi film "Cloud Atlas," an adaptation of a 2004 novel starring Halle Berry and Tom Hanks. Also getting launched this weekend is horror-thriller "Silent Hill: Revelation 3D," comedy "Fun Size" and sports drama "Chasing Mavericks," though no release is expected to put up a huge opening total.
After making the immensely popular and influential "The Matrix," Lana and Andy Wachowski largely slipped from the public eye after declining interest in the "Matrix" series and the commercially disappointing "Speed Racer." Four years after "Speed Racer" was one of the biggest duds of 2008, the Wachowskis are back with "Cloud Atlas," an ambitious sci-fi epic that received enormous praise when it first launched at the Toronto International Film Festival.
But even though it energized crowds at TIFF back in September, having commercial success with mainstream audiences is a completely different matter. Having Tom Hanks and Halle Berry atop the cast doesn't hurt, but the Warner Brothers distribution also runs the risk of alienating more casual action fans with its non-linear storyline. Also going against it is an R-rating and a runtime that is nearly three hours, which will cut down on overall screenings and could potentially scare away some of its intended audience.
Reservations about the commercial viability of "Cloud Atlas" seem to have had a big impact on its release size, as the $100 million production is hitting just under 2,000 total venues across the country this weekend. Even as the fourth widest release of the weekend, though, "Cloud Atlas" should still have the largest audience to appeal to, which should help it top the charts with somewhere in the neighborhood of $18-$22 million.
While "Cloud Atlas" looks to scoop up action and sci-fi lovers, horror-thriller "Silent Hill: Revelation 3D" is the widest release of the weekend at nearly 3,000 total theaters. Despite the wide release, however, "Silent Hill" will still have heavy competition from "Paranormal Activity 4," which should command a healthy portion of horror-seekers as it heads into its second weekend. Look for "Silent Hill: Revelation" to bring in $10-$12 million this weekend for distributor Open Road Films.
Aiming at a mostly different demographic this weekend is "Fun Size," a PG-13 comedy that will reach about 2,800 total theaters across the U.S. But even with a general lack of comedy options out there right now, "Fun Size" doesn't have a major box office star to lean on and also received a fairly limited marketing push from distributor Paramount. With almost no online buzz heading into its opening weekend, it's hard to imagine "Fun Size" earning more than $7-$8 million this weekend.
Also looking to find mainstream audiences is sports drama "Chasing Mavericks," starring Gerard Butler and Elisabeth Shue. With a PG rating and an uplifting storyline, "Chasing Mavericks" could find a home with family audiences with older children, though a release of just 2,000 theaters suggests Fox doesn't have enormous commercial expectations. Expect an underwhelming opening around $5-$6 million this weekend for "Chasing Mavericks."
With commercial expectations fairly low across the board this weekend for new releases, horror-thriller "Paranormal Activity 4" and "Argo" should be in good shape to appeal to their target demographics. "Paranormal Activity 4" saw a dip in revenue from its predecessor, though a $29 million opening for a $5 million production is still nothing short of phenomenal. Even if "P.A. 4" ends up the weakest performing release in the series, good overseas numbers should ensure that it will cross $100 million in worldwide revenue and open up the possibility of a fifth entry.
Actor/director Ben Affleck's "Argo" also continues to do well with adult audiences and appears to be in store for another minimal slip from its previous weekend. After a $19.5 million opening, "Argo" dipped only 15.5% last weekend and has continued to put up strong numbers during the week, showing that it has caught on with mainstream adult audiences. Even with some fresh competition, expect a solid weekend of more than $10 million and a 17-day domestic total close to $60 million for "Argo."
As we kick off the busy November schedule next weekend, director Robert Zemeckis' "Flight" will look to ride early critical buzz to a strong opening weekend, with Denzel Washington, John Goodman and Don Cheadle heading the cast. Meanwhile, Disney's animated "Wreck-It-Ralph" should have the family demographic mostly to itself and action film "The Man with the Iron Fists" stars Russell Crowe and Lucy Liu in rapper RZA's directorial debut. Hitting theaters later in the month will be the highly anticipated James Bond film "Skyfall," the final chapter of "The Twilight Saga" and Steven Spielberg's historical drama "Lincoln."
RTT Box Office Predictions for 10/26/12 - 10/28/12 (in millions):
1) Cloud Atlas (Warner Brothers): $20
2) Paranormal Activity 4 (Paramount): $13
3) Silent Hill: Revelation (Open Road Films): $11
4) Argo (Warner Brothers): $10
5) Hotel Transylvania (Sony/Columbia): $7.8
6) Fun Size (Paramount): $7
7) Taken 2 (Fox): $6.8
8) Alex Cross (Summit): $5.5
9) Chasing Mavericks (Fox): $5
10) Here Comes the Boom (Sony/Columbia): $4.9
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