With a popular cast including Mark Wahlberg and Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson, director Michael Bay's "Pain & Gain" is in a good shape to open atop the box office this weekend, though it doesn't seem to be in line for an enormous opening despite Bay's clout with action audiences. Also hoping to find adult audiences this weekend is romantic comedy "The Big Wedding," an R-rated comedy starring Robert De Niro, Robin Williams, Diane Keaton and Susan Sarandon. After two strong weekends, "42" could also put together another big total as it continues to resonate with audiences around the country, while "The Croods" is in good shape to maintain its pull with family audiences, likely keeping it in the top five for the sixth consecutive weekend.
Though critics have never warmed up to Michael Bay's action films, action audiences have been piling in to see Bay's movies since "The Rock" became a major hit back in the mid-1990s. From "Armageddon" and "Pearl Harbor" to the "Transformers" series, Bay has been behind a steady string of smash hits, though that success isn't likely to continue this week with "Pain & Gain." Thanks to competition from "Oblivion," an R-rating and difficult release timing right before the start of the summer, "Pain & Gain" could easily be Bay's weakest opening since "The Island" tanked nearly eight years ago.
Also not helping is a fairly meager opening of just 2,900 theaters, making "Pain & Gain" the first Bay release of less than 3,000 theaters since 1996 ("The Rock"). But even though "Pain & Gain" isn't tracking for a huge opening, having Wahlberg and Johnson headlining the cast should still help it at least get off the ground this weekend. "Pain & Gain" also has a very minimal production budget of only $25 million, giving it almost no downside for Paramount. With an opening in the neighborhood of $22-$26 million, "Pain & Gain" should easily finish the weekend as the number one movie in the U.S.
Another R-rated release hoping to make a dent with adult audiences this weekend is romantic comedy "The Big Wedding." But even though "The Big Wedding" has a star-studded cast, Lionsgate is only unveiling it at roughly 2,500 venues and early critical reviews have been nothing short of disastrous, making for a potentially tough opening. Despite a lack of a genre competition, "The Big Wedding" isn't in line for an opening of much more than $12-$13 million.
While "The Big Wedding" and "Pain & Gain" try to find their target demographics, baseball drama "42" continues to make waves with its intended audience heading into its third weekend in theaters. As of Tuesday, "42" was already up to $56 million in the U.S., putting it on pace to end up as one of the highest grossing baseball movies of all-time. "42" saw a dip of only 35.5% from its first weekend to its second and it should see similar success once again this weekend, helping it rack up an impressive 17-day total right around $70 million for Warner Brothers.
Also continuing its success this weekend is "The Croods," Fox's animated film that has been a major box office factor since it opened back in March. "The Croods" has already surpassed $150 million in domestic revenue and has brought in more than $400 million worldwide, making it one of the most lucrative films of the year so far. Without any new competition, "The Croods" should put up another decent weekend thanks to its sway with family audiences and it looks like it will stick around the top 10 well into May.
Next weekend, the summer blockbuster season kicks off in a major way with the release of "Iron Man 3," which should ride the success of "The Avengers" to some eye-popping worldwide figures by the time it's out of theaters. Also on the schedule for May will be Baz Luhrmann's interpretation of "The Great Gatsby," highly anticipated sequel "Star Trek Into Darkness" and M. Night Shyamalan's sci-fi epic "After Earth," starring Will Smith and his son, Jaden.
RTT Box Office Predictions for 4/26/13 - 4/28/13 (in millions):
1) Pain & Gain (Paramount): $25
2) Oblivion (Universal): $18
3) The Big Wedding (Lionsgate): $13
4) 42 (Warner Brothers): $11
5) The Croods (Fox): $5.9
6) Scary Movie 5 (Weinstein/Dimension): $3
7) G.I. Joe: Retaliation (Paramount): $2.8
8) The Place Beyond the Pines (Focus): $2.5
9) Olympus Has Fallen (FilmDistrict): $2.3
10) Jurassic Park 3D (Universal): $1.9
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