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DiCaprio's 'Great Gatsby' Likely No Match For 'Iron Man 3'

By RTTNews Staff Writer   ✉  | Published:  | Google News Follow Us  | Join Us

With huge numbers pouring in over the first week, "Iron Man 3" is just about a lock to remain far and away the top box office draw this weekend despite two new releases and the expansion of critically acclaimed thriller "Mud." The biggest competition "Iron Man 3" faces is "The Great Gatsby," director Baz Luhrmann's adaptation of the classic novel starring Leonardo DiCaprio, Tobey Maguire and Carey Mulligan. Also hitting theaters will be "Tyler Perry Presents Peeples," which is tracking for a modest opening as it hits roughly 2,000 total venues this weekend.

Since we know what "Iron Man 3" is capable of at the box office, this weekend is all about "The Great Gatsby." Director Baz Luhrmann originally made a splash with his modern day take on "Romeo + Juliet," the 1996 film that helped make Leonardo DiCaprio a major international star before he ever went down with the "Titanic." Luhrmann would follow it up with "Moulin Rouge!" - a critically acclaimed musical that was a big hit around the globe.

It hasn't all been good news at the box office for Luhrmann, though, as his $130 million production of "Australia" tanked in the U.S. back in 2008 and was mostly shredded by critics. This time around with "The Great Gatsby," critics have also been heavily divided and the buzz heading into its opening weekend is less than stellar, which could prevent it from having a huge opening. Having to push back the release from late-December to May also could be an indicator that "Gatsby" isn't in line for much of a box office run.

DiCaprio playing the title role of F. Scott Fitzgerald's heralded novel should ensure a decent audience for at least one weekend, though an opening of more than $30-$35 million seems unlikely as it hits an estimated 3,350 theaters in the U.S.

Aiming at a mostly different audience this weekend is "Tyler Perry Presents Peeples," a PG-13 comedy starring Craig Robinson from NBC's hit series "The Office" and features like "Hot Tub Time Machine." While Tyler Perry didn't direct or write "Peeples," his name has become a brand all to itself, and it should be able to bring in a decent opening weekend at an estimated 2,000 total theaters. Perry's comedies also tend to do a little better than his dramas, suggesting that it will have enough of an audience to surpass disappointing Perry releases "For Colored Girls" and "Good Deeds."

Also entering into the equation this week is "Mud," a critically acclaimed thriller starring Matthew McConaughey. Critical buzz has been nothing short of outstanding, but it has struggled to find much of an audience in theaters during its limited release. Much like the paltry indie "The Place Beyond the Pines," "Mud" doesn't seem to have a great deal of appeal for mainstream audiences and it's also hitting less than 900 total venues this weekend, which points to a fairly limited theatrical run. Still, it will provide a decent option for adult audiences not interested in "Iron Man 3," likely propelling it to a top-five finish in the neighborhood of $4-$5 million this weekend.

As a few new releases take aim at target audiences this weekend, "Iron Man 3" is doing a victory lap after an enormous international release a week ago. "Iron Man 3" posted the second highest domestic opening ever ($174 million) and is already rapidly approaching $800 million in worldwide revenue, dwarfing all of the other releases so far in 2013. Even if "Iron Man 3" sees a substantial domestic drop of roughly 60% from its blockbuster opening, it should still be far and away the top movie of the weekend, likely propelling it past $900 million in worldwide revenue in the process.

Next weekend, "Iron Man 3" will give way to the highly anticipated release of "Star Trek Into Darkness" as the summer box office season continues. Though the numbers for the 2009 "Star Trek" were far from groundbreaking, excellent audience and critical buzz should turn "Into Darkness" into a mega commercial hit both domestically and abroad. Also hitting theaters the rest of May will be Fox's big-budget animated film "Epic," "The Hangover III" and M. Night Shyamalan's sci-fi epic "After Earth," starring Will and Jaden Smith.

RTT Box Office Predictions for 5/10/13 - 5/12/13 (in millions):

1) Iron Man 3 (Disney): $72

2) The Great Gatsby (Warner Brothers): $33

3) Tyler Perry Presents Peeples (Lionsgate): $16

4) Mud (Roadside Attractions): $4.1

5) 42 (Warner Brothers): $3.6

6) Pain & Gain (Paramount): $3.5

7) Oblivion (Universal): $2.7

8) The Croods (Fox): $2.6

9) The Big Wedding (Lionsgate): $1.8

10) Oz The Great and Powerful (Disney): $0.9

For comments and feedback contact: editorial@rttnews.com

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