Following up a very popular franchise reboot in 2009, "Star Trek Into Darkness" gets launched this weekend amidst enormous expectations from Paramount - a studio that desperately needs a stable, big-budget franchise. With "Star Trek" taking over with action audiences, "Iron Man 3" should finally slide out of the number one spot, though the box office stalwart from Disney is already knocking on the door of $1 billion worldwide. "The Great Gatsby" could also be in line for another strong weekend coming off of a very nice opening of more than $50 million.
In one of the most anticipated releases of the summer, director J.J. Abrams' "Star Trek Into Darkness" brings tremendous domestic and international expectations thanks to the popular 2009 reboot and a very positive critical response thus far. "Star Trek" was one of the highest grossing non-sequels of 2009, earning a very steady $257 million in the U.S. despite some heavy competition against other mainstream action releases.
The only downside for sequel "Into Darkness" is that the 2009 franchise-starter didn't have much of an impact outside of the U.S., earning just $127 million abroad to finish with less than $400 million worldwide. Most big-budget action films that click with American audiences typically have a big impact internationally as well, yet "Star Trek" never took off despite the name brand recognition and U.S. popularity.
But a relatively modest beginning could still yield a very successful franchise. While "Batman Begins" finished with less than $400 million worldwide, it still kick-started an enormously successful new series. "Star Trek Into Darkness" isn't likely to come close to the numbers of "Batman Begins" follow-up "The Dark Knight," but it will likely see much bigger numbers around the world thanks to the franchise's positive momentum. Getting launched on a Thursday, "Into Darkness" should ride strong midnight totals to a four-day haul somewhere in the $120-$140 million range, with an estimated $100 million coming Friday through Sunday.
Even with big numbers from "Star Trek Into Darkness," "Iron Man 3" is still expected to be a major force at the box office. So far, there has been no stopping the latest from the Marvel universe, as "Iron Man 3" was already up to $980 million in worldwide box office revenue at the beginning of the week, putting it in position to shoot past $1 billion before even starting its third weekend. "Iron Man 3" should finally take a hit this weekend as action audiences check out other options, but it still looks to be in line for an impressive third weekend total north of $30 million in the U.S. alone.
Aiming at a slightly different target audience continues to be "The Great Gatsby," Baz Luhrmann's film starring Leonardo DiCaprio and Carey Mulligan. Despite "Iron Man 3" still making waves a week ago, "Gatsby" raked in an impressive $50 million in opening revenue, giving it the third highest opening total of 2013 in the process. Though the early numbers have been pretty good, this will also be a good test to see if "Gatsby" can hold on to its audience despite some major new competition. Look for "Gatsby" to finish close to $25 million this weekend and to end up in very good position to break $100 million domestically by next week.
After "Star Trek" and "Iron Man" dominate the early parts of May, the release calendar for the rest of the month will bring an eclectic set of new titles that could go either way at the box office. Hitting theaters next weekend, "Fast & Furious 6" stands the best chance to put up some huge overall numbers, though "The Hangover III" has the fan base to potentially make it the highest grossing comedy of the year. Fox's animated film "Epic" also has big expectations with family audiences and M. Night Shyamalan's sci-fi epic "After Earth" seems to have both blockbuster and bust potential, with Will Smith and son Jaden co-starring in the Sony/Columbia distribution.
RTT Box Office Predictions for 5/17/13 - 5/19/13 (in millions):
1) Star Trek Into Darkness (Paramount): $98
2) Iron Man 3 (Disney): $33
3) The Great Gatsby (Warner Brothers): $27
4) 42 (Warner Brothers): $2.9
5) Pain & Gain (Paramount): $2.6
6) Tyler Perry Presents Peeples (Lionsgate): $2.3
7) The Croods (Fox): $2.2
8) Oblivion (Universal): $1.9
9) The Big Wedding (Lionsgate): $1.3
10) Mud (Roadside Attractions): $1.2
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