With three new big-budget releases and several other prominent titles still hanging in the balance, it's expected to be one of the busiest weekends of the year at the box office, with "Fast & Furious 6" leading the way as it launches at more than 3,600 theaters across the country. Another release in great position to rack up a big opening total is "The Hangover III," the final leg of one of the most popular comedy franchises of all-time.
Family audiences will also finally get a big-budget release as well, as Fox's "Epic" carries big expectations as it reaches an estimated 3,800 total theaters domestically. "Star Trek Into Darkness" and "Iron Man 3" will also carry some weight with action audiences, but there are too many options this weekend for either to have much of an impact.
Even with "Star Trek" likely taking away some of its potential audience, "Fast & Furious 6" looks like a lock to be one of the highest grossing releases of the summer. Though the series sputtered when the third installment "Tokyo Drift" hit theaters back in 2006, it has dramatically picked back up with the return of Vin Diesel for the last two entries. Both "Fast & Furious" and "Fast Five" were major hits, with domestic intakes of $155 million and $209 million, respectively.
Now in a summer release position for the first time in the franchise since 2003, expectations couldn't be higher for the Universal distribution. Considering that "Fast Five" hauled in an April record $86 million opening weekend just two years ago, there is clearly still a very wide audience, which will likely only increase with the addition of The Rock into the cast. The only downside for "Fast & Furious 6" is the heavy competition from "Star Trek," "Iron Man 3" and "The Hangover III," but that shouldn't slow it down from raking in somewhere near $100 million this weekend.
While action audiences pour into "Fast & Furious 6," many comedy-seekers will flock to "The Hangover III." After "The Hangover" grossed more than any other R-rated comedy in history, rushing two sequels into theaters was a no-brainer for Warner Brothers. Though "The Hangover II" saw a slight dip in domestic revenue, it also brought in an unbelievable $586 million worldwide - a full $119 million more than the original. Even if "The Hangover III" has been mostly ripped by critics, it has a wide enough potential audience to make it yet another big hit for the franchise. Opening on Thursday, "The Hangover III" should pull in somewhere around $50 million from Friday through Sunday and close to $60 million for its first four days.
Aiming at a much different audience this weekend is "Epic," a big-budget animated release from distributor Fox. Though Fox's other big animated release, "The Croods," has been dominating with family audiences for two months, it's finally starting to slide and shouldn't be in the top 10 for too much longer, opening the door for "Epic" to take over the family crowd.
"Epic" doesn't yet have name recognition from its target audience, but positive critical reviews, a lack of competition and a full-throttle marketing campaign from Warner Brothers should get it off the ground this weekend. Look for "Epic" to earn somewhere in the $42-$47 million range and to be a major factor with family audiences until "Monsters University" hits theaters in about a month.
With the intense new competition, it looks like "Star Trek Into Darkness" is the victim of horrible release timing. Though the critical reviews have been very strong and the fan interest in the series superb, early numbers have been below industry expectations, mostly thanks to the presence of "Iron Man 3." With "Fast & Furious 6" and "The Hangover III" both taking away some of its potential audiences this weekend, look for a fairly substantial slide and a disappointing 10-day domestic total around $140 million for the Paramount distribution.
Next weekend, big-budget season will continue with the release of "After Earth," a sci-fi epic starring Will and Jaden Smith from director M. Night Shyamalan. "Now You See Me" will also hit theaters next weekend, with Jesse Eisenberg and Morgan Freeman starring in a thriller about FBI agents chasing a team of ingenious bank robbers.
RTT Box Office Predictions for 5/24/13 - 5/26/13 (in millions):
1) Fast & Furious 6 (Universal): $98
2) The Hangover III (Warner Bros.): $52
3) Epic (Fox): $45
4) Star Trek Into Darkness (Paramount): $37
5) Iron Man 3 (Disney): $17
6) The Great Gatsby (Warner Brothers): $11.3
7) Pain & Gain (Paramount): $1.6
8) The Croods (Fox): $1.8
9) 42 (Warner Brothers): $1.5
10) Oblivion (Universal): $1.2
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