With great release timing and an enormous marketing push from Warner Brothers, franchise-hopeful "Man of Steel" hits theaters this weekend with expectations of posting one of the biggest openings of the year as it reaches roughly 4,200 venues across the country. Also getting launched this week is "This is the End," an R-rated screwball comedy starring popular comedians Seth Rogen, Jonah Hill, Michael Cera and others. The weekend should also be the last that "The Hangover III" squeezes into the top 10 after a strong box office run that is nearing $300 million worldwide.
After the trouble getting "Superman Returns" off the ground back in 2006, it all comes down to "Man of Steel" for distributor Warner Brothers. Instead of continuing on with the Bryan Singer/Brandon Routh "Superman" franchise, Warner Brothers instead hit the reset button and went back to the drawing board, bringing on Christopher Nolan as an executive producer and attempting to conjure up similar buzz to what Nolan had with his Batman trilogy.
After moving on from lead actor Routh, they also brought in another relative unknown in Henry Cavill as the new Superman and gave new director Zack Snyder a huge $225 million production budget. Even though that budget is an estimated $45 million less than "Superman Returns," "Man of Steel" is still one of the most expensive productions of 2013.
With that type of budget following the "Superman Returns" dud, the expectations for "Man of Steel" to turn into a hit franchise are nothing short of enormous, providing plenty of pressure for it to post a very big opening both domestically and abroad. The good news is that the early critical buzz has been mostly positive and it has nearly perfect release timing, as "Iron Man 3" is finally headed out of the top 10 and "Star Trek Into Darkness" never quite caught on the way that many had anticipated.
"After Earth" has also been a big disappointment as well, leaving much more of a potential audience this weekend than if both "Star Trek" and "After Earth" had connected with action audiences. Also aided by an all-star cast that includes Russell Crowe, Kevin Costner and Amy Adams, "Man of Steel" should be able to break $100 million this weekend as it reaches more than 4,200 total theaters in the U.S. alone.
Aiming at a mostly different audience this weekend will be "This is the End," which hits more than 3,000 domestic theaters starting Wednesday. Though it hasn't all been box office smash hits for Seth Rogen and company, Rogen's best reviewed comedies have also tended to be the best performing at the box office, suggesting that "This is the End" has a very good chance to make some noise in theaters. While he co-wrote PG-13 duds "The Watch" and "The Green Hornet," Rogen should be on firmer ground with R-rated "This is the End," which should help remind audiences of popular Rogen comedies like "Superbad" and "Pineapple Express."
Releasing on a Wednesday could also turn out to be a brilliant move from Sony/Columbia, the distributor looking to rebound from the poor-performing "After Earth." While launching alongside "Man of Steel" on Friday would have been very tough, a Wednesday release could allow some buzz to build heading into the weekend, helping it compete with "Man of Steel" and potentially leading to some repeat viewings. Look for "This is the End" to post a decent opening in the $25-$28 million range and finish closer to $40 million in its first five days in domestic theaters.
As "This is the End" picks up adult comedy-seekers, it should be the last weekend that "The Hangover III" reaches the top 10 after a predictably strong run over the last month. Even though "The Hangover III" saw a huge drop in revenue from the second installment, which racked up $254 million domestically and $586 million worldwide, it still looks like it will end up as one of the top grossing R-rated releases of 2013. "The Hangover III" has already cracked $100 million domestically and should reach $300 million around the globe before all is said and done, though those types of numbers are expected for a production costing $103 million.
Next weekend, the box office should get another boost with the release of two major releases aimed at different demographics. After the success of "Monsters, Inc." more than a decade ago, animation studio Pixar will launch prequel "Monsters University," which should have no problem finding a very wide family audience from June well into July. Also hitting theaters will be "World War Z," an apocalyptic thriller starring Brad Pitt that is already gathering some decent critical buzz heading into its opening.
RTT Box Office Predictions for 6/14/13 - 6/16/13 (in millions):
1) Man of Steel (Warner Brothers): $118
2) This is the End (Sony/Columbia): $25
3) The Purge (Universal): $17
4) Fast & Furious 6 (Universal): $8.9
5) Now You See Me (Lionsgate/Summit): $9.2
6) The Internship (Fox): $8
7) Epic (Fox): $6.8
8) Star Trek Into Darkness (Paramount): $6
9) After Earth (Sony/Columbia): $5.3
10) The Hangover III (Warner Bros.): $3.6
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