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Poll Shows Democrat Leading In Pennsylvania Special Election


A day before voters head to the polls in a closely watched special election in Pennsylvania's 18th Congressional District, the results of a Monmouth University poll show Democrat Conor Lamb has taken a lead over Republican Rick Saccone.

The poll showed Lamb with a 51 percent to 45 percent lead over Saccone if turnout yields a Democratic surge similar to voting patterns seen in other special elections over the past year.

Lamb has a much narrower 49 percent to 47 percent advantage over Saccone using a historical midterm lower turnout model, while he leads 51 percent to 44 percent in a model with higher turnout overall.

Monmouth noted Saccone held a small lead in all three of the models in a survey of the race conducted last month.

President Donald Trump campaigned for Saccone at a rally on Saturday and reiterated his support for the Republican candidate in a post on Twitter on Monday.

"When added to a potential Democratic surge that has been building for weeks, Lamb appears to have picked off enough Republican-leaning voters to take a lead going into this contest's final weekend," said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

He added, "It would mark an extraordinary swing from Trump's nearly 20 point victory here in 2016 if he could hold on to win,"

The poll showed Lamb with a net positive 53 percent favorable and 33 percent unfavorable rating from likely voters in the district, while opinions of Saccone are somewhat more divided at 47 percent favorable and 43 percent unfavorable.

The Monmouth survey of 503 registered voters in Pennsylvania's 18th Congressional District was conducted March 8th through 11th. Results are based on the responses of 372 likely voters and have a margin of error of plus or minus 5.1 percent.

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