FAA Projects Slow Rebound In Air Travel - Update

(RTTNews) - The Federal Aviation Administration on Tuesday said that air travel will begin rebounding slowly in 2010 and predicted slow growth over the next two decades. In its annual forecast, the agency also projects U.S. airline passenger numbers to reach 1 billion in 2023, two years later than projected earlier. The forecast also links aviation activity and national economic growth.

The Federal Aviation Administration or FAA's 20-year forecast for fiscal years 2010 to 2030 predicts domestic passenger enplanements, or the number of passengers on planes, will increase by 0.5% in 2010 and then grow an average of 2.5% per year during the remaining forecast period. International enplanements are forecast to increase 0.9% in 2010 and then grow an average of 4.1% per year for the rest of the forecast period.

Total operations at airports are forecast to decrease 2.7% to 51.5 million in 2010, and then grow at an average annual rate of 1.5% for the remaining forecast period, reaching 69.6 million in 2030.

Passengers on U.S. airlines will pay relatively small increases in airfares over the next 20 years, but they should expect more flights crowding the nation's busiest airports. Operations at the 35 busiest airports in the U.S. are projected to increase 60% from 2010 to 2030.

The FAA now predicts that U.S. airlines will reach one billion passengers a year by 2023, two years later than forecast earlier. In 2009, the agency had forecast U.S. airlines to reach one billion air travelers annually by 2021. The revised forecast is due to the drop in operations in 2009, when take-offs and landings declined 10.4%. It also marks the third consecutive year the FAA has pushed back the expected date for 1 billion passengers.

The number of passengers on U.S. airlines domestically and internationally is forecast to increase to 1.21 billion in 2030 from 704 million in 2009.

The agency forecasts that key airspace safety and efficiency modernization efforts will play a vital role in spurring long-term sustained growth in air travel and the nation's overall economic health.

The agency says its "Next Generation" air-traffic control system, once deployed, will accommodate the growth. NextGen is upgrading the nation's air traffic control from a ground-based radar system to a satellite-based GPS system.

According to FAA, these advancements are already showing safety, efficiency and environmental benefits. NextGen technologies and procedures will increase capacity and safety and reduce fuel burn, carbon emissions and noise by providing more efficient air routes and procedures. Other innovations include improved weather forecasting, data networking and digital communications.

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