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"New Moon" Should Remain Atop Box Office Amid Eclectic Set Of New Releases
11/27/2009 11:57 AM  ET
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(RTTNews) -  After a $142 million haul in its opening weekend - tops so far in 2009 - "The Twilight Saga: New Moon" should still have plenty of an audience to propel it to a second straight weekend as the number one box office draw. PG comedy "Old Dogs" from distributor Buena Vista is the widest new release of the weekend and should benefit from being aimed at family audiences following Thanksgiving. Animated "The Fantastic Mr. Fox" will reach little more than 2,000 theaters and R-rated action film "Ninja Assassin" should hit roughly 2,500 theaters, though neither one should make a huge splash due to an overall bevy of popular titles currently in theaters.

Even with a set of new releases, "New Moon" continues to be the box office story of the year. In less than a full week in theaters, "New Moon" has already eclipsed $300 million worldwide and cemented "The Twilight Saga" as one of the biggest draws over the last few years. The domestic totals of "New Moon" are also right on par with "Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen," which is currently the top domestic grosser of the year at $402 million. With the fanfare of "New Moon," there is a legitimate possibility it could overtake "Revenge of the Fallen" on the domestic charts, though James Cameron's "Avatar" is also expected to post huge domestic figures following its Dec. 18 release.

With a production budget of only $50 million, "New Moon" is among the cheapest mega-blockbusters in recent history. The last time a release had a budget of under $60 million and landed atop the domestic charts for the year was all the back in 1994, when "Forrest Gump" did exactly that with a budget of only $55 million; the only release this decade with a production budget under $100 million to top the yearly domestic charts was "The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King," which cost $94 million. "New Moon" should continue its tremendous success and could haul in another $60 million over the weekend, placing it far ahead of the other new titles.
As the widest new release of the weekend, the John Travolta and Robin Williams comedy "Old Dogs" is in the best position to appeal to the plethora of family audiences that typically are around following Thanksgiving. "Old Dogs" is also from the director of "Wild Hogs," which John Travolta also starred in back in 2007. "Wild Hogs" was a smash commercial success, hauling in $168 million domestically and $253 million worldwide from distributor Buena Vista.

With "Old Dogs" also getting distributed by Buena Vista, "Old Dogs" is in good position to have success in both domestic and foreign markets. It is unlikely, however, that "Old Dogs" can reach the $39 million that "Wild Hogs" earned its opening weekend due to a substantial amount of overall competition in a variety of genres. Look for "Old Dogs" to post a solid opening weekend somewhere in the $20 to $25 million range.

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