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Turkey Inflation Remains High On Lira Weakness Impact


Turkey's inflation accelerated for a seventh straight month and remained at a high level in October, amid increases in prices of most goods and as the impact of weakness in the lira continued to feed into prices.

The consumer price index rose 25.24 percent year-on-year following a 15-year high of 24.52 percent increase in November, figures from the Turkish Statistical Institute showed on Monday. Economists had forecast a rate of 24.70 percent.

On a month-on-month basis, the CPI climbed 2.67 percent in October after a 6.30 percent rise in September. Economists had forecast a 2.5 percent increase.

Clothing and footwear prices registered the biggest monthly increase of 12.74 percent.

Meanwhile, domestic producer prices rose 45.01 percent year-on-year in October, which was slower than the 46.15 percent increase in the previous month.

Compared to the previous month, producer prices rose 0.91 percent.

Last week, the Turkish central bank governor Murat Cetinkaya announced that the bank has raised this year's inflation forecast to 23.5 percent from 13.4 percent.

Despite the surge in inflation, the TCMB left its key interest rate unchanged in October after the massive hike in September, when it was raised to 24 percent from 17.75 percent.

The bank said it will decisively maintain a tight stance in monetary policy until inflation outlook displays a significant improvement, adding that it was ready to hike rates further, if needed.

Consumer confidence fell to a decade-low in October.

"Overall, October data shows that the inflation outlook remains poor driven by cost factors," ING Bank economist Muhammet Mercan said. "Inflation likely has more room to run given that domestic PPI stands at around 45 percent."

Going forward, developments in the exchange rate and food prices will likely determine the CPI trend, given an ongoing slowdown in demand pressures, the economist said.

"The current uptrend will continue a few months more and likely peak in early 2019, with upside risks prevailing in the short-term," he added.

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