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No Recession In View: White House Economic Adviser


White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow dismissed concerns about a possible recession in the wake of volatile global bond markets last week, which is seen as a predecessor of recessions.

"There is no recession in sight. Consumers are working. Their wages are rising. They are spending and they are saving," Kudlow said in a television talk show, "Fox News Sunday".

Citing data showing 0.7 per cent increase in US retail sales in July, the director of the National Economic Council said the US economy is in "pretty good shape."

Ahead of the 2008 financial crisis, Kudlow had said "There's no recession coming."

Meanwhile, a recent survey among U.S. economists found that the majority of them expect a U.S .recession in the next two years.

In the Economic Policy Survey, conducted among 226 members of the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) during July 14-August 1, most of the respondents said they expect the next economic recession will occur later than anticipated when the February policy survey was conducted.

98 percent of respondents believe that a recession will come after 2019, but the panel is split regarding whether it will hit in 2020 or 2021.

"Respondent attitudes towards current fiscal policy have shifted significantly," in the opinion of NABE President Constance Hunter, who is the chief economist, KPMG.

The percentage of panelists who find current fiscal policy 'too stimulative' has declined from 71 percent in August 2018 to 51 percent in the current survey. Just over one-third consider fiscal policy 'about right,' and 8 percent find it 'too restrictive.'

58 percent of respondents believe the likelihood of the U.S. imposing tariffs on imported automobiles and auto parts is 26 percent or higher.

40 percent of those who were surveyed expects a no deal Brexit in which the U.K. crashes out of the EU with no divorce agreement.

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