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CDC Study Projects Sharp Decline In US Coronavirus Cases By July

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A new report by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, or CDC, has projected a sharp decline in coronavirus cases in the United States by July, and an even faster decline if more people get vaccinated sooner.

The promising news appears in an article that CDC published in its Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report that provides some insights using data and evidence to show various scenarios of what will happen with cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, and how it depends on how many people get vaccinated and whether we continue to follow prevention measures.

The study, which CDC initiated in collaboration with a large group of academic researchers, is the first multi-model effort to project the long-term trajectories of COVID-19 in real time in the country in different scenarios.

The team looked at four scenarios, each with different assumptions about vaccination coverage, combined with other strategies to prevent spread of COVID-19 such as physical distancing, masking, isolation, and quarantine.

Discussing the report at a press briefing, CDC director Dr. Rochelle Walensky said these models project that local conditions and emerging variants are putting many states at risk for increases in COVID-19 cases, especially if we do not increase the rate of vaccinations do not keep our current mitigation strategies in place until we have a critical mass of people vaccinated.

"What we learned from this report is that we are not out of the woods yet, but we could be very close. All of us who are getting fully vaccinated and continuing our prevention efforts can help us turn the corner on the pandemic as early as July, and set us forward on a path toward a more normal lifestyle," Dr.Walensky told reporters.

Walensky said that when high vaccination rates and low case rates are in sight, further guidance on easing some of the restrictions that are currently in place will be released.

The projected scenario is seen as the positive impact of the rapid rollout of vaccination in the United States, and the latest target set by President Joe Biden to cover 70 percent of adult Americans with at least one vaccine shot by July 4.

Announcing the next phase of his administration's vaccination campaign, Biden said on Tuesday that coronavirus infection cases in the United States are down in 40 states in the past two weeks. Deaths are down dramatically since January — down by more than 80 percent among seniors.

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