Adobe Sees 2.5% Growth In U.S. Online Holiday Sales; Thanksgiving Sales To Be Weak

Adobe Systems Inc. (ADBE) Monday said it expects U.S. online holiday sales to grow 2.5 percent year-over-year from November 1 to December 31.

In its online shopping forecast for the 2022 holiday season, based on Adobe Analytics data, the company said it expects U.S. online holiday sales to hit $209.7 billion in the two months.

During the 2021 holiday shopping season, $204.5 billion was spent online, a growth of 8.6 percent from the previous year, with consumers uncertain about returning to physical stores due to lingering pandemic concerns.

Cyber Monday is expected to remain the season's and year's biggest shopping day, driving $11.2 billion in spending, increasing 5.1 percent from last year.

By comparison, Black Friday online sales are projected to grow by just 1 percent year-over-year at $9 billion, while Thanksgiving sales are set to fall to $5.1 billion, down 1 percent.

Further, Adobe said consumers are expected to spend earlier this year, as a second Prime Day, from October 11 to 12, kicks off before the holiday season begins.

Adobe expects Cyber Week, from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday, will bring in $34.8 billion overall, up 2.8 percent from last year. This represents a 16.3 percent share of the full season, down from 16.6 percent in 2021.

Adobe expects electronics to drive $49.8 billion of online spending, up 2.9 percent. Groceries are expected to drive $13.3 billion of spending online, growing 10.5 percent.

According to Adobe, these major shopping days are losing prominence as e-commerce becomes a more ubiquitous daily activity, and as consumers see discounts continuing throughout the full season.

Patrick Brown, vice president of growth marketing and insights at Adobe, said, "Even though we expect to see single-digit growth online this season, it is notable that consumers have already spent over $590 billion online this year at 8.9 percent growth, highlighting the resiliency of e-commerce demand."

The biggest discounts are expected to hit between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday.

The analysis covers over 1 trillion visits to U.S. retail sites, 100 million SKUs and 18 product categories.

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