While the 2014 midterm elections are still more than a year away, the results of a Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday show that Democrats have a slim advantage.
The poll found that 41 percent of voters would vote for the Democratic candidate in their Congressional district if the election was held today, while 37 percent said they would vote for the Republican candidate.
Democrats benefit from stronger support among women, who said 44 percent to 35 percent that they would vote for the Democratic candidate. Men were almost evenly split.
Quinnipiac noted that the Democrats gaining seats would violate the historical model of the president's party losing ground in the sixth year of a presidency.
"The 1998 elections, during President Bill Clinton's second term, is the last recent exception to the rule that the sixth year of a president's term in office produces electoral gains for the opposition party," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
He added, "The Democratic edge in the so-called congressional ballot is small at this point in the cycle, but there has been a consistent Democratic edge for several months."
However, Brown noted that Democrats held a 41 percent to 34 percent lead in the generic ballot in April of 2009, but Republicans went on to pick up a historic 63 House seats.
The poll found that voters trust Democrats more to handle health care, while they prefer Republicans on the budget deficit and gun policy. The two parties are about even on the economy and immigration.
"The Democratic edge in the generic ballot does not seem to be linked to any strong public affection for the president's party," Brown said. "They are down on both groups, just Democrats a bit less."
He added, "For instance voters say 62 - 33 percent that Republicans don't care about their needs and problems, but say the same thing about Democrats in Congress 54 - 41 percent. They give congressional Republicans a 67 - 24 percent disapproval rating. Democrats receive a 60 - 31 percent disapproval score."
The Quinnipiac survey of 1,471 registered voters was conducted April 25th through 29th and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.6 percentage points.
For comments and feedback: editorial@rttnews.com