Friday, KeyBanc Capital downgraded Timken Co. (TKR) shares to Hold from Buy. The brokerage lowered its 2009 EPS estimate to $1.40 from $2.20.
Analyst Mark Parr lowered 2009 EPS estimate to $1.40, near the midpoint of Timken's initial 2009 guidance range of $1.30-$1.60. This includes a first quarter of 2009 estimate of $0.14 vs. $0.82, which reflects reduced volume momentum in global automotive and industrial end markets, as well as negative timing of raw material cost recovery, partially offset via likely LIFO benefits from declining raw material input costs and solid pricing upside across the breadth of its bearings portfolio.
Although the analyst is positively disposed toward TKR's ongoing improvement in product and geographical mix and success securing pricing upside in most of its contract portfolio, he believes declining volume momentum and corresponding margin pressures across TKR's automotive and industrial platform outweigh positive pricing traction.
Accordingly, the analyst downgraded the stock until a more meaningful upside catalyst emerges. The analyst also noted a $584 million sequential hit to shareholders' equity, mostly via pension adjustments, nicked book value by $6/share at year-end 2008 to $17/share from $23/share, creating a lower deep value support level for the stock in the near term.
Currently, TKR is down $0.80 or 5.07% and trading at $14.99.
For comments and feedback: editorial@rttnews.com