Commenting on the German GDP data, Commerzbank analyst Ralph Solveen said he expects the German economy to grow 0.8% for both the third and fourth quarter of 2009. He said emerging turnaround in exports and the expected stabilization of investment in machinery and equipments would support a substantial recovery in the second half of 2009.
He noted that the increase in investments in construction in the second quarter was possibly due to the additional infrastructure investments financed with funds from both economic stimulus packages.
Although, these impulses are only temporary, the present trend in exports and investments in plant and equipment gives hope of a sustainable turnaround, the analyst said. Both components registered decreases in the prior quarter, but smaller than before signaling the situation is likely to have at least stabilized over the second quarter, he added.
A negative factor for growth came from inventory investments in the second quarter. The analyst said the inventory cycle should already turn in the third quarter, although the positive effect on GDP would then be offset by a recovery in imports.
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