Thursday, Credit Suisse initiated coverage of Lear Corp. with an Outperform rating and a price target of $81.
Analyst Ceraso said that Lear has a strong competitive position in seating, which has helped to preserve pricing and margins. Upon exiting bankruptcy, Lear has a clean balance sheet, which sets it apart from many of its auto supplier peers. Despite the bankruptcy, Lear continued to win new business, and holds a 3-year backlog of $1.4 billion.
The analyst said that his profit forecasts for 2010-2012 show significant upside potential vs. the company's plan-of-reorganization estimates. The analyst would highlight his forecast for 2011 EBITDA of $916 million vs. LEA's estimate of $703 million. The valuation looks attractive, with about 20% upside potential from the current price.
The analyst's valuation is based on a discounted cash flow model, assuming that LEA can grow operating profit at 5% annually over the mid- to long-term, and that capital needs are lower than for most other auto suppliers. The analyst does not, however, give Lear credit for adding back restructuring charges, and history suggests the market will do the same.
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