This week might get off to a slow start, with traders returning to work somewhat groggily and overfed after last week's Thanksgiving holiday. However, some important economic reports are due out later in the week, including the monthly jobs report and new figures about economic growth. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve will be in focus as well, with a number of speeches from Fed officials and the central bank's so-called Beige Book.
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The data will be key to assessing the prospects for 2017. As we enter December and count down the last month of the calendar year, we can look back to the performance of the domestic economy with some signs of hope.
This might come as a surprise, considering the news flow of the last 11 months. In the U.S., uncertainty concerning the presidential election for much of the year added a headwind to the economy. There has been some risks from overseas as well: slowing growth in commodity-guzzling China, the Brexit vote, the health of the European financial system, an OPEC that seems to be constantly threatening a reduction in production and the ongoing Syrian refuge crisis.
Yet the domestic economy continued to chug along, weathering all these crises with steady, if unimpressive, growth.
Going into the last stage of 2016, the U.S. economy can boast a solid job market, a vibrant housing recovery, resilient consumers and healthy corporate profit growth. This all worked to uphold the economy, with ample help coming from the Fed's extremely accommodative monetary policy.
However, the accommodative policy is about to start being reigned in. Meanwhile, this week will give the latest readings on whether job growth will remain strong enough to support the economy.
As we start to look ahead to the upcoming data, let's look at some of the recent reports from the past week:
Existing home sales rose 2 percent month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.6 million units. More commendable was the performance of the steadier single family home sales. However, new home sales slipped back from elevated levels.
Regarding the labor market, jobless claims spiked 18,000 in the recent reporting week. Still, the figure has remained below the 300,000 mark for 90 straight weeks.
Meanwhile, flash estimates of Markit's manufacturing and service sector surveys for November showed a private sector that is remaining steady. In a separate report, the Commerce Department's durable goods orders climbed a solid 4.8 percent month-over-month, much higher than expected. The excluding transportation numbers were also strong.
On the Fed, the minutes of the November 2 FOMC meeting showed that members are still leaning towards a December rate hike. However, there were polarizing opinion concerning the amount of labor market slack and the risks plaguing the 2 percent inflation target. The December FOMC meeting is scheduled for December 13-14.
Now a look into the unfolding week's economic events...
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