It is a crucial moment for India as the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) meets second time for a two-day meet in Vienna on Thursday, probably the decisive round on the Indo-US nuclear deal. If the NSG approves a clean waiver by consensus, it will end India's 34-year nuclear isolation. The first round of meeting held on August 21-22 ended inconclusively after some countries such as Austria, New Zealand and Ireland expressed reservations on according a clean waiver to India. Since the NSG works by consensus, a third round could complicate things further, as it will hinder chances of the deal going through this year, before the November 4 presidential elections.
India is likely to bank on the ability of the 'Big 4' countries to convince skeptics about the merits of bringing India inside the non-proliferation tent. Earlier, the US, Russia, France and Britain extended unambiguous support for the nuclear deal and have consistently batted for the deal in the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and NSG. Russia and France, especially, have reportedly finalized bilateral civil nuclear cooperation agreements with India and stand to gain business worth billions of dollars once the deal passes through.
Upon commencement of the NSG meeting, the members will take note of a revised draft, prepared by the US in close consultation with India. The new draft is prepared following demands by at least 15 countries during the August meeting. India is likely to make all efforts to allay the apprehensions of the skeptic countries, but is unlikely to accept the waiver if it is laden with conditions.
According to media reports, the issue of an automatic end to commerce is not dealt in the new draft agreement, but the draft incorporates a paragraph in which the existing NSG guidelines are referred to. It is said the NSG group will meet and consult before deciding on action if India violates its agreement. The new draft agreement also mentions about the requirement of information exchange between NSG members on what they sell to India.
Totally, the draft could reflect the key concerns of the skeptics without making any specific reference to prescriptive provisions like testing, compliance requirements and curbs on export of reprocessing and enrichment technologies. Additionally, the Indian and US officials are likely to highlight India's impeccable non-proliferation record and its growing need for clean energy. It remains to be seen whether these changes in the draft and assurances soothes concerns of skeptics over suspected weakening of the global non-proliferation regime.
In another significant development, media reports revealed some facts that contained in the US Administration's 26-page reply to questions raised by Congress on the Indo-US Civil Nuclear Agreement. The clarifications were sent to Howard L Berman's (Chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee) predecessor, the late Tom Lantos, on January 16 this year. Accordingly, the US President George Bush told the US Congress that the US will not sell sensitive nuclear technologies to India and would immediately terminate nuclear trade if New Delhi conducts a nuclear test. The State Department's letter to Lantos, quoted by media, however, says the US would help India deal only with "disruptions in supply to India that may result through no fault of its own", such as a trade war or market disruptions. "The fuel supply assurances are not, however, meant to insulate India against the consequences of a nuclear explosive test or a violation of non-proliferation commitments," the letter said. Indian Government, however, dismissed it as 'nothing new' while, the Congress party said it is an internal communication between the US administration and the legislature.
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