Dynamic and compelling commitment from the United States is necessary to confront growing uncertainty in Afghanistan and the region when the International Security Assistance Force mission ends next year, the top commander of NATO and U.S. forces in Afghanistan says.
"We [must] confront growing uncertainty in Afghanistan and in the region," Gen. Joseph F. Dunford Jr. told the Senate Armed Services Committee on Tuesday, adding that many Afghans have told him "they no longer fear the Taliban as much as they fear what will happen after 2014."
One Afghan described it as the "Y2K effect," Dunford said, alluding to a period of uncertainty late in the 20th century driven by questions of how computer-controlled systems would behave with a complete rollover of the calendar year's digits on Jan. 1, 2000.
"There is a growing sense that December 2014 is a cliff for the Afghan people," he added. The General called for addressing this dynamic "with an incredible, compelling narrative of U.S. commitment."
He said that in the absence of confidence and hope for a brighter future, Afghan leaders, the Afghan people and regional actors would continue to hedge and plan for the worst case.
The behavior associated with that mindset, Dunford said, had the very real potential to undermine the campaign.
Dunford noted ISAF remains focused on denying safe haven in Afghanistan to the al-Qaeda terrorists who attacked the U.S. on 9/11, and denying the Taliban, who harbored them, the ability to overthrow the Afghan government.
"My confidence is based on the very real progress we have made since the surge of forces began in late 2009, and that surge allowed us to move the campaign forward."
Constant pressure on the remnants of al-Qaida in Afghanistan, he said, has disrupted the terror organization's ability to plan and conduct operations against the West.
Afghan security forces have recruited and fielded most of their authorized strength of 352,000, Dunford said. "They are leading app[approximately 80 percent of all combat operations being conducted, and they have the lead security responsibility for territory where nearly 90 percent of the population lives," he added.
Later this spring, Dunford said, Afghan forces will be completely in the lead for combat operations across the nation. His testimony today comes during an inflection point in the Afghan campaign, the General added, with many reasons to be optimistic and several significant challenges to overcome.
Dunford said in the months ahead, ISAF would continue to focus on a wide range of issues to include leadership development, ministerial capacity, aviation, and the systems, processes and institutions needed to sustain a modern, professional force.
"We'll also need to address very real political and psychological factors that will affect the outcome of the campaign," he said.
"Psychology will influence the performance of the Afghan forces this summer and affect the critical elections of 2014," Dunford said.
Dunford told the senators the campaign is in the "decisive phase of transition."
"But in the end," he continued, "if we define winning as completing political and security transition while rendering al-Qaida operationally ineffective [and] as setting the conditions for the Afghans to exploit a decade of opportunity that will begin in 2015, I firmly believe we can win."
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