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Market Analysis

Beyond the Numbers

Uncertainty About Middle East Conflict May Lead To Choppy Trading On Wall Street

May 04, 2026 08:52 ET

The major U.S. index futures are currently pointing to a roughly flat open on Monday, with stocks likely to show a lack of direction in early trading.

Uncertainty about the situation in the Middle East may keep some traders on the sidelines after President Donald Trump said over the weekend that he would be reviewing a new peace proposal from Iran but said he “can’t imagine that it would be acceptable.”

“They have not yet paid a big enough price for what they have done to Humanity, and the World, over the last 47 years,” Trump said of Iran in a post on Truth Social.

Trump said in a separate post that the U.S. would soon begin helping to “free” ships from countries not involved with the Middle East dispute that are stranded due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

“If, in any way, this Humanitarian process is interfered with, that interference will, unfortunately, have to be dealt with forcefully,” Trump said.

The news of the president’s plan comes amid reports Iran’s Navy has blocked “American-Zionist” warships from entering the Strait of Hormuz.

Iranian state media also claimed the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps hit a U.S. warship with two missiles, although U.S. Central Command denied the report and said, “No U.S. Navy ships have been struck.”

Traders may also be reluctant to make significant moves ahead of the release of the closely watched monthly jobs report on Friday.

After showing a strong move to the upside early in the session, stocks gave back ground over the course of the trading day on Friday. The major averages pulled back well off their highs of the session, with the Dow sliding into negative territory.

The major averages eventually ended the day mixed. While the Dow fell 152.87 points or 0.3 percent to 49,499.27, the S&P 500 rose 21.11 points or 0.3 percent to 7,320.12 and the Nasdaq advanced 222.13 points or 0.9 percent to 25,144.44.

Despite pulling back off their best levels of the day, the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 still finished the session at new record closing highs.

The major averages also moved to the upside for the week. The Nasdaq jumped by 1.1 percent, the S&P 500 climbed by 0.9 percent and the Dow increased by 0.6 percent.

The early strength on Wall Street came amid a sharp increase by shares of Apple (AAPL), with the tech giant surging by 3.3 percent.

Apple nearly reached the record intraday high set last December after reporting better than expected fiscal second quarter results and forecasting revenues for the current quarter above analyst estimates.

Buying interest was also generated in reaction to an extended pullback by the price of crude oil, with U.S. crude oil futures tumbling by nearly 3 percent.

U.S. crude oil futures showed a significant downturn on Thursday, slumping by 1.7 percent after reaching their highest levels in four years.

The continued decrease by crude oil prices came amid reports Iran has delivered its response to the latest U.S. amendments on the agreement to end the war through Pakistani mediators.

However, the positive sentiment may have been partly offset by the response from President Donald Trump, who told reporters at the White House that he was "not satisfied" with Iran's proposal.

In U.S. economic news, the Institute for Supply Management released a report showing manufacturing activity expanded for the fourth consecutive month in April.

The ISM said its manufacturing PMI came in at 52.7 in April, unchanged from March. While a reading above 50 still indicates growth, economists had expected the index to inch up to 53.0.

Computer hardware and software stocks saw substantial strength on the day, contributing to the advance by the tech-heavy Nasdaq.

Reflecting the strength in the sectors, the NYSE Arca Computer Hardware Index and the Dow Jones U.S. Software Index both surged by 2.5 percent.

Considerable strength was also visible among airline stocks, as reflected by the 1.7 percent gain posted by the NYSE Arca Airline Index.

On the other hand, brokerage stocks showed a significant move to the downside, dragging the NYSE Arca Broker/Dealer Index down by 1.9 percent.

Housing, gold and energy stocks also saw notable weakness on the day, limiting the upside for the broader markets.

Commodity, Currency Markets

Crude oil futures are jumping $1.49 to $103.43 a barrel after plummeting $3.13 to $102.50 a barrel last Friday. Meanwhile, after rising $14.90 to $4,644.50 an ounce in the previous session, gold futures are slumping $61.10 to $4,583.40 an ounce.

On the currency front, the U.S. dollar is trading at 157.07 yen versus the 157.03 yen it fetched at the close of New York trading on Friday. Against the euro, the dollar is trading at $1.1707 compared to last Friday’s $1.1720.

Asia

Asian equity markets rallied on Monday, tracking Wall Street's strong performance on Friday attributed mainly to strong corporate earnings. However, the geopolitical stress from the Middle East conflict capped gains. Markets in China and Japan were closed for holidays.

The Hang Seng Index of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange jumped 1.2 percent from the previous close to finish trading at 26,095.88. The day's trading range was between a high of 26,326.44 and a low of 26,091.86. The index has gained around 16 percent over the course of the past year.

The Korean Stock Exchange's Kospi Index surged 5.1 percent from the previous close of 6,598.87 to close trading at a record high of 6,936.99. The day's trading range was between 6,741.63 and 6,937. The index has gained more than 170 percent over the course of the past year.

Australia's S&P/ASX200 Index closed trading at 8,697.10, shedding 0.4 percent from the previous close of 8,729.80 amidst anxiety ahead of Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate decision on Tuesday. The day's trading ranged between 8,675.40 and 8,738.10. The index has gained 5.6 percent over the course of the past year.

Life360 led gains with an addition of 6.2 percent followed by Imdex that rallied 4.9 percent. A2 Milk plunged 9.9 percent followed by Liontown that erased 8.3 percent.

The NZX 50 Index of the New Zealand Stock Exchange added 0.5 percent to close trading at a three-week high of 13,097.68. The day's trading ranged between 12,938.53 and 13,097.68. The index has gained 6.2 percent over the past year.

Freightways topped gains with a surge of 4.3 percent. EROAD followed with gains of 4.2 percent. A2 Milk led losses with a decline of 9.6 percent, followed by Tourism Holdings that shed 3.8 percent.

Europe

European stocks are showing weakness on Monday amid renewed concerns about tariffs after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to hike levies on European cars and trucks to 25 percent from the existing 15 percent rate, saying the European Union had failed to fully comply with a trade agreement negotiated with the U.S.

Lingering concerns about the situation in the Middle East also weighed on sentiment. Iran's navy has reportedly said that it has prevented U.S. ships entering the Strait of Hormuz after Trump said the U.S. military would help guide stranded vessels today.

Meanwhile, US has denied Iranian state media claims that a U.S. vessel was hit by missiles from Iran, adding, "No U.S. Navy ships have been struck."

Currently, the German Index is just below the unchanged line and the French CAC 40 Index is down by 0.8 percent.

In the German market, Continental is down 4.6 percent. RWE is lower by about 3 percent, while Scout24, Allianz, Volkswagen, MTU Aero Engines, Deutsche Post, Vonovia, BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Commerzbank and Deutsche Telekom are down 2 percent-2.5 percent.

Porsche Automobil Holding, Adidas, BASF and Deutsche Bank are also notably lower.

Rheinmetall is climbing up 2.75 percent. Brenntag is gaining 2 percent, while SAP, Infineon, Siemens Energy and Symrise are up 1 percent-1.5 percent.

In the French market, Eurofins Scientific, EssilorLuxottica, Danone, Societe Generale, Hermes International, AXA and Sanofi are down 2 percent-3 percent.

Saint Gobain, Safran, L'Oreal, Kering, Bouygues, Accor, Veolia Environment, Engie, Air Liquide, Renault, Unibail Rodamco and Schneider Electric are also notably lower.

STMicroelectronics is rising more than 5.5 percent. Teleperformance is up 3.2 percent, while Airbus, Publicis Groupe and Pernod Ricard are gaining 1 percent-1.3 percent.

In economic news, a report from S&P Global showed the S&P Global Germany Manufacturing PMI was revised slightly higher to 51.4 in April 2026 from a preliminary of 51.2, compared to a 46-month high of 52.2 in March.

Eurozone investor sentiment improved unexpectedly in May, driven by investor expectations that the conflict with Iran would not escalate further, a survey conducted by the behavioral research institute Sentix showed Monday. The investor sentiment index rose to -16.4 in May from -19.2 in April. The score was forecast to fall to -20.9.

The euro area factory activity expanded at its strongest pace in nearly four years in April as manufacturers front-loaded their orders due to fears of the war-induced price increases and supply shock, final data from S&P Global showed Monday.

The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index rose to a 47-month high of 52.2 in April, in line with flash estimate, from 51.6 in March.

U.S. Economic News

The Commerce Department is due to release its report on new orders for manufactured goods in the month of March at 10 am ET. Factory orders are expected to rise by 0.5 percent in March after coming in unchanged in February.

At 12:50 pm ET, New York Federal Reserve President John Williams is scheduled to deliver the keynote before the Cynosure Group Spring Symposium.

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