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European Economic News

ECB Survey Shows Longer Term Inflation Expectations Broadly Unchanged

By RTTNews Staff Writer   ✉   | Published:   | Follow Us On Google News
rttnewslogo20mar2024

Longer-term expectations for euro area inflation were broadly unchanged, while growth and unemployment projections were lowered, results of a survey by the European Central Bank showed Friday.

Average longer-term inflation expectations for 2021 stand at 1.8 percent, unchanged with respect to the previous survey, the quarterly ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters revealed.

Inflation expectations for this year was pegged at 0.2 percent versus 0.3 percent earlier, while the projection for next year was kept at 1.2 percent. Average inflation was seen at 1.4 percent in 2018 versus 1.5 percent seen earlier.

"The expected increase in inflation over time is initially due mainly to a strong pick-up forecast in energy prices and thereafter to a more gradual rise in underlying inflation," the report said.

Eurozone inflation accelerated in September to its highest level since late 2014, but at 0.4 percent it is quite far from the ECB's 'below, but close to 2 percent' goal. The figure has been below target since early 2013.

Growth was forecast at 1.6 percent for 2021, which was lower than the 1.7 percent predicted in the previous survey. The projection for this year was revised up to 1.6 percent from 1.5 percent.

For 2017, the forecast was kept at 1.4 percent, while the outlook for 2018 was trimmed to 1.5 percent from 1.6 percent.

Euro area growth slowed to 0.3 percent from 0.5 percent in the second quarter.

The unemployment rate forecasts for this year and next were retained at 10.1 percent and 9.7 percent, respectively. The projection for 2018 was cut to 9.3 percent from 9.5 percent.

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