Wednesday, Commerzbank analyst Peter Dixon said there will not be much of turnaround in the U.K. labor market for some time to come.
Dixon noted that a significant reduction in unemployment is unlikely until such times as the economy is growing faster than the trend rate of productivity. Indeed, the level of unemployment is expected to peak only in mid-2010 and there will not be a meaningful reduction until 2011. Moreover, inflation pressure will remain limited from this quarter for many months to come.
Further, Dixon said the claimant count unemployment data do not measure the full extent of the job shakeout in financial services, because people who have been laid off from high-paid jobs may decide not to claim the Job Seekers Allowance, and this has changed the behavior of the claimant count unemployment data compared with past recessions.
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June 12, 2026 17:14 ET Major central bank action was the focus this week in economic news. The European Central Bank became the first major central bank to move in response to the rising inflationary pressures in the backdrop of the conflict in the Middle East. In North America, the U.S. inflation and trade data as well as Canada’s central bank decision gained attention. The Chinese trade data was the main news in Asia.