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Upgrading BioMarin Pharmaceutical To Outperform, Increasing Price Target - Credit Suisse Comments

By RTTNews Staff Writer   ✉  | Published:  | Google News Follow Us  | Join Us
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Thursday, Credit Suisse upgraded BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc. (BMRN) shares to Outperform from Neutral and increased its price target to $25 from $19.

Analyst Aberman noted that BioMarin reported better third quarter EPS, including options, of $0.06 vs. consensus of $0.01 on slightly lighter revenues but lower expenses. Kuvan sales came in higher partially on inventory. The company also updated guidance. More important, the analyst is adding the GALNS and 3,4-DAP programs to his NPV model, which increased his price target to $25, and upgrading the stock to Outperform.

The quarter was roughly in-line and the Kuvan beat was largely driven by inventory changes. However, the analyst is lowering his operating expenses in the outer years leading to increased EPS in 2010 and beyond. More important to valuation, the analyst has added both the Morquio program and 3,4-DAP to his model.

For Morquio, while there is certainly some risk that the clinical benefit is not met in the Phase I/II trial because of the severity of the bone deformities, the analyst thinks the hurdle for enzyme replacement is still relatively low and with a conservative estimate on probability of success, the program adds $4 to his valuation.

The analyst believes that the Huxley deal was a positive NPV transaction based on conservative estimates that only include EU sales of 3,4-DAP in LEMS. The transaction adds ~$1 to the analyst's valuation. The bottom line is that the analyst believes the current approved products support the current valuation, with the pipeline as upside. With proof-of-concept expected for GALNS and PEG-PAL in 2010, the analyst thinks now is a good time to get involved.

Currently, BMRN is up $0.14 or 0.89% and trading at $15.82.

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