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Market Analysis

Beyond the Numbers

Traders Apprehensive as Euro Leaders Meet, Week’s Key Events Loom

January 30, 2012 08:54 ET

The major U.S. index futures are pointing to a lower opening on Monday, with sentiment faltering as traders await the outcome of a European Union leaders meeting currently underway in Brussels. France’s decision to unilaterally impose a financial transaction tax has also dampened sentiment. Traders may also prefer to stay on the sidelines ahead of the week’s key domestic economic events, as some deal news and a successfully bond auction by France offered some encouragement.

U.S. scrambled to a mixed close in the week ended January 27th after advancing for three straight weeks. The FOMC announcement and some promising earnings reports helped offset concerns over the still unresolved nature of the Euro zone debt crisis.

Last Monday, the major averages went about in a listless manner before closing mostly lower, as traders expressed apprehension ahead of the Eurogroup finance ministers meeting despite earnings and European bond auctions remaining fairly encouraging. U.S. stocks meandered to a mixed close on Tuesday as traders digested mixed news on the earnings front and remained concerned about a lack of progress on Greece’s talks with its private creditors.

However, the major averages closed Wednesday’s session higher after the Federal Reserve provided the much needed thrust to the markets by extending the timeline they have set for starting the normalization of interest rates. Weighed down by mixed earnings, a lackluster jobless claims report and the Eurozone debt worries, the markets closed lower yet again on Thursday. Data showing a smaller than expected fourth quarter expansion by the U.S. economy left traders concerned on Friday, resulting in a mixed close.

For the week, the Dow Industrials ended down 0.47 percent, while the S&P 500 Index and the Nasdaq Composite Index added 0.07 percent and 1.07 percent, respectively.


For the week, the NYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index, the NYSE Arca Airline Index and the NYSE Arca Biotechnology Index rose 9.40 percent, 7.84 percent and 5.38 percent, respectively. The Philadelphia Oil Service Index and the S&P Retail Index added about 2 percent each for the week. Meanwhile, NYSE Arca Oil Index and the KBW Bank Index slipped over 1 percent each.

Commodity, Currency Markets

Crude oil futures are receding $0.53 to $99.03 a barrel after advancing $1.23 or 1.25 percent to $99.56 a barrel in the week ended January 27th. Last Monday, oil broke a 3-session losing streak and advanced moderately. However, oil reversed course on Tuesday amid an increase in risk aversion.

The commodity became the beneficiary of the dollar’s weakness on Wednesday, as it advanced moderately. The dollar suffered due to the FOMC pledge of keeping interest rates low for a longer period than it originally planned. Oil rose modestly on Thursday before pulling back slightly on Friday.

Gold futures, which rose $68.20 or 4.10 percent to $1,732.20 an ounce in the previous week, are currently slipping $7.10 to $1,728.30.

Among currencies, the U.S. dollar ended the week ended January 27th mostly lower, with the dollar extending its slide against the euro and settling the week at $1.322, down 2.19 percent over the week. The euro continued to benefit from successful bond auctions by euro zone nations and also positive activity indicators. At the same time, the greenback added 0.90 percent against the yen to 77.70 yen.

The buck is currently fetching 76.65 yen and is valued at $1.3095 versus the euro.

Asia

Asia witnessed uneasy trading, with most markets in the region declining sharply. India’s Sensex led the region’s declines with a 2.15 percent retreat. The Chinese market, which opened after a weeklong holiday, saw its index plunge by 1.47 percent. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index declined 1.66 percent, while Japan’s Nikkei and Australia’s All Ordinaries fell a more modest 0.54 percent and 0.32 percent, respectively.

Europe

The major European markets are receding, with the French CAC 40 Index down over 1 percent and the German DAX Index and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index down notably.

Netherlands-based Philips reported a loss of 160 million euros for its fourth quarter, reversing from a profit of 465 million euros in the previous year, dragged down by insipid sales and charges related to its exit from a loss making television business. Most analysts had predicted a more modest loss.

On the other hand, Irish low cost carrier Ryanair swung to a profit in its third quarter and also raised its profit forecast for the full year.

On the economic front, economic sentiment in the eurozone improved for the first time since March 2011, according to the results of a survey by Eurostat. The corresponding indicator rose to 93.4 from 92.8 in December.

U.S. Economic Reports

Several first-tier economic reports are due to be released in the unfolding week and these reports could provide further clarity regarding the economic outlook. The monthly non-farm payrolls report for January, a private sector job report by ADP, considered a precursor for the former, the results of the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing and non-manufacturing surveys, a regional manufacturing survey, the weekly jobless claims report and the Conference Board’s consumer confidence report are among the market moving reports of the week.

Traders may also focus on the S&P Case-Shiller house price index for November, the Commerce Department’s construction spending and factory goods orders reports for December and announcements concerning Treasury auctions of 3-year and 10-year notes and 30-year bonds. The fourth quarter employment cost index, the preliminary fourth quarter productivity and costs report and a couple of Fed speeches round up the economic events of the week.

Payrolls are set to expand yet again in January, although at a much more modest pace than in December, which saw a boost from hiring by couriers and messengers. The expectations for payroll gains are based on the recent positive data on the jobs front. Jobless claims have been trending well below the 400,000 level. Nevertheless, the jobless rate is expected to remain unchanged at 8.5 percent

The Institute for Supply Management’s national manufacturing survey should bring in good tidings. The headline manufacturing index is expected to rise for the third straight month. According to BMO Capital Markets, the sector stands to benefit from strong business spending, buoyant auto production and a firm export trend. The service sector survey is also expected to show improvement as reflected by increasing confidence in the economic outlook.

U.S. personal incomes increased by more than expected in December although consumer spending dipped unexpectedly, according to figures released Monday by the Commerce Department. According to DOC figures, personal income increased $61.3 billion in December, a 0.5 percent increase over November levels.



While most economists had expected a relatively robust increase in personal incomes, the market consensus had pegged it as a 0.4 percent increase. However, despite the increase in incomes, consumer spending dipped unexpectedly in December, falling less than 0.1 percent. Most economists had expected consumer spending to hold up with the 0.1 percent increase recorded in November.

Stocks in Focus

Earnings

Hologic (HOLX), Kilroy (KRC), Mckesson (MCK), Mindspeed Technologies (MSPD), Plum Creek Timber (PCL), Reinsurance Group of America (RGA) and Rent-A-Center (RCII) are among the companies due to report their results after the markets close.

Other Corporate News

Thomas & Betts (TNB) announced a deal to be acquired by Swiss engineering giant ABB for $3.9 billion in cash. The company also announced that its fourth quarter adjusted earnings from continuing operations rose 30 percent to $1 per share on 13.4 percent sales growth to $603.6 million. For 2012, the company expects sales growth to be in the mid-single digit range and operating earnings of $3.90-$4.20 per share. The fourth quarter results exceeded estimates, while the 2012 guidance was in line with estimates.

Pep Boys – Manny, Moe & Jack (PBY) agreed to be acquired by Gores Group for $15.00 per share in cash or for a total enterprise value of the transaction at $1.0 billion. Pep Boys will become a privately held company and its stock will no longer trade on the New York Stock Exchange. The company has suspended its quarterly dividend.

Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX) has withdrawn its offer to acquire ISTA Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ISTA) for $7.50 per share in cash. Valeant said it withdrew the offer due to lack of progress.

Exxon Mobil (XOM) announced an agreement that will result in the restructuring of its holdings in Japan. The company executed a deal with TonenGeneral Seikyu to sell its stake in its refining venture called ExxonMobil Yugen Kaisha for $3.9 billion. This will result in a reduction in Exxon Mobil’s stake in Tonen to 22 percent from 50 percent.

BMC Software (BMC) announced a deal to acquire Numara Software

E*TRADE Financial (ETFC) announced the appointment of Frank Petrillio as Chairman, effective January 27th, 2012.

PetMed (PETS) announced a 20 percent increase in its quarterly dividend to 15 cents per share.

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