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U.K. Visible Trade Gap Highest Since October 2012

By RTTNews Staff Writer   ✉  | Published:  | Google News Follow Us  | Join Us
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The U.K. visible trade gap widened unexpectedly in September to the highest level in almost a year, driven by a fall in exports and a rise in imports, suggesting that the net trade would be a drag on economic growth.

Official figures also showed that third quarter construction growth was smaller than estimated in the preliminary GDP report.

The visible trade gap rose to GBP 9.8 billion in September, the Office for National Statistics said Friday, while it was forecast to narrow to GBP 9.2 billion from GBP 9.6 billion in August. The shortfall was the largest since October 2012, when it reached GBP 9.9 billion.

Exports of goods decreased 0.7 percent month-on-month to GBP 25.1 billion for September. On the other hand, imports rose 0.2 percent to GBP 34.9 billion.

It is evident that the economy is currently far from seeing a hoped-for rebalancing with a greater contribution from exports, said IHS Global Insight's Chief UK Economist Howard Archer.

The economic recovery is being led by the consumer, suggests that it won't be long before import demand begins to accelerate, Martin Beck at Capital Economics said. Hence, even if exports pick up, the trade deficit may narrow only slowly over the next year, the economist reckoned.

A separate report from the ONS said construction output for the third quarter grew 1.7 percent quarter-on-quarter. The figure was lower than the 2.5 percent growth estimated in the flash third quarter GDP report.

According to Archer, this would mean that GDP growth in the third quarter would be shaved down by 0.05 percentage point given that construction output accounts for 6.3 percent of total output.

Preliminary estimate showed that the economy expanded 0.8 percent in the third quarter, the fastest rate since 2010.

The overall trade in goods with the EU revealed a record deficit of GBP 6 billion in September. Meanwhile, visible trade with non-EU nations showed a shortfall of GBP 3.8 billion, down from GBP 4.3 billion deficit in August.

The shortfall on goods trade was partially offset by GBP 6.5 billion surplus on services trade. As a result, the overall trade gap remained at GBP 3.3 billion in September.

In the third quarter, the visible trade gap widened by GBP 3.8 billion to GBP 29.1 billion. Likewise, the total trade deficit increased to GBP 9.7 billion from GBP 5.4 billion.

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