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Global Growth Fears Reignited By Chinese Factory, US Spending Data

By RTTNews Staff Writer   ✉  | Published:  | Google News Follow Us  | Join Us
rttnewslogo20mar2024

The major U.S. index futures are pointing to a lower opening on Monday, with profit taking likely to pressure stock in the wake of weak Chinese manufacturing data. Also impacting market mood is likely to be anemic spending data for December. Crude oil prices are declining, although the rest of the commodities are showing mixed sentiment. The dollar is mixed, firming up against the yen and commodity currencies, while it is weaker against the euro and the pound. Some deal news of the day and earnings beat by insurers could help mitigate some of the negativity. A Fed speech scheduled for the day could also be in focus.
 
U.S. stocks advanced solidly in the week ended January 29th, extending its previous week's gains, as domestic earnings, though mixed, oil's rebound and the Bank of Japan's rate move generated strength.  
 
Last Monday, the major averages declined notably, as oil priced declined. The averages reversed course and rallied strongly, thanks to some positive earnings news and the climb in oil prices. Unimpressed by the FOMC statement that did not clearly rule out a rate increase in the wake of abounding global economic risks, the major averages fell steeply on Wednesday. The release of mixed earnings did not help matters.  
 
Stocks advanced on Thursday, as oil priced firmed, helping traders overlook negative domestic data on durable goods orders. With the Bank of Japan surprising the markets by announcing negative interest rates, the major averages rallied sharply on Friday.  
 
For the week ended January 29th, the Dow Industrials added 372.79 points or 2.32 percent before ending at a 2-week high of 16,466 and the S&P 500 Index ended up 33.34 points or 1.75 percent at a 3-week high of 1,940. The Nasdaq Composite closed 22.77 points or 0.50 percent higher at 4,614, its highest closing level since January 14th. Some high profile earnings disappointments trimmed the optimism in tech stocks, leading to the underperformance of the tech-heavy index.  

However, for the month, the Dow Industrials and the S&P 500 Index are down over 5 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite have lost close to 8 percent. 
 
Among the sectors, the NYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index rallied 13.07 percent for the week and the Philadelphia Oil Service Index, the NYSE Arca Computer/Hardware Index, the NYSE Arca Oil Index and the Dow Jones Utility Index gained 6.36 percent, 5.48 percent, 4.56 percent and 3.77 percent, respectively. On the other hand, the NYSE Arca Biotechnology Index slipped 9.55 percent. 
 
Currency, Commodity Markets 
 
Crude oil futures are slipping $1.16 to $32.45 a barrel after rising $0.33 or 0.11 percent to $33.62 a barrel in the week ended January 29th. This marked the second straight weekly gain for oil. The commodity started the week on a weak note, losing close to $2-a-barrel, only to rebound and advance in the rest of the four sessions of the week. 
 
Gold futures, which gained $20.10 or 1.83 percent to $1,116.40 an ounce in the previous week, are currently advancing $5.60 to $1,122 an ounce. 
 
Among the currencies, the U.S. dollar moved higher against the euro and the yen in the week ended January 29th.  However, the buck came under pressure against commodity currencies. The greenback added 2.02 percent against the yen before ending the week at 121.14 yen, with the BoJ moving prompting traders to sell-off the Japanese unit, and it moved up 0.36 percent against the euro to $1.0831 a euro. 
 
The dollar is currently trading at 121.28 yen and is valued at $1.0879 a euro. 
 
Asia 
 
The Asian markets advanced, with the Japanese, Australian, New Zealand, South Korean and Taiwanese markets ending higher. However, most other major markets retreated, as weak Chinese manufacturing reading exerted pressure on stocks. The Malaysian market was closed for a public holiday. 
 
A weaker yen propped up Japanese stocks, with the Bank of Japan-induced optimism remaining intact, sending domestic stocks up solidly for the second straight session. The Nikkei 225 average opened higher and moved roughly sideways in the morning. After taking a leg-up in the mid-session, the averages moved sideways yet again in the afternoon before ending up 346.93 points or 1.98 percent at a 3-week high of 17,865. 
 
Export stocks gained ground, while construction, food, resource, chemical, pharma, utility and real estate stocks moved to the upside. On the other hand, retail, financial and marine transportation stocks came under selling pressure. 
 
Australia's All Ordinaries held above the unchanged line throughout the session, ending down 37.70 points or 0.75 percent at 5,094. The market witnessed broad based strength, with industrial, healthcare and consumer discretionary stocks leading the gains. 
 
However, China's Shanghai Composite Index ended down 48.75 points or 1.78 percent at 2,689 and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index closed 87.61 points or 0.45 percent lower at 19,596. 
 
On the economic front, official data released by the National Bureau of Statistics showed that the Chinese manufacturing sector contracted at a faster rate in January, with a PMI score of 49.4, down from 49.7 in December. The non-manufacturing PMI also slipped, easing 0.9 points to 53.5. 
 
At the same time, the survey by Caixin and Markit showed that the manufacturing PMI for China rose to 48.4 from 48.2 in December, suggesting continued contraction. Economists expected a score of 48.1. 
 
The manufacturing PMI for Japan compiled by Markit and Nikkei fell to 52.4 in January from 52.6 in December.  
 
Data released by TD Securities showed that consumer prices in Australia is expected to rose to 2.3 percent year-over-year in January from 2 percent in December. The monthly inflation rate is expected at 0.4 percent following a 0.2 percent reading for December. 
 
Europe 
 
European stocks have squandered a positive start and have move into negative territory in early trading, as recent gains make traders wary of further upside. Weak Chinese manufacturing data have also served to increase the anxiety of traders. 
 
In major corporate news, Ryanair reported a strong increase in third quarter profits and sales. The airliner also announced stock buyback. BT's quarterly pre-tax profits and sales also rose year-over-year.  
 
On the economic front, revised estimates released by Markit showed that the eurozone manufacturing PMI fell 0.9 points to 52.3 in January, matching the flash estimate. The sector has been in expansion mode for 31 straight months.  
 
Markit and the Chartered Institute of Procurement and Supply reported that the U.K. manufacturing activity accelerated in January. The PMI rose 0.8 points to 52.9, ahead of the estimated reading of 51.8.  
 
Data released by the Bank of England showed that mortgage approvals in the U.K. rose 70,800 in December compared to the consensus estimate of 69,600. Net consumer credit was up 1.2 billion pounds, slightly softer than the 1.3 billion pound increase in December.  
 
U.S. Economic Reports 
 
The unfolding week's economic calendar is heavily loaded, with quite a few first-tier data lined up for release. The spotlight is likely to be on the Labor Department's monthly jobs report for January, the ADP's private payrolls data, also for January, released ahead of the NFP report, the routinely scheduled weekly jobless claims, the Commerce Department's personal income and spending report for December, the results of the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing and non-manufacturing surveys for January and Markit's final U.S. manufacturing and non-manufacturing index for January. 
 
Some Fed speeches scheduled for the week and monthly vehicle sales results of January could also draw the attention of traders. The Commerce Department's construction spending, trade balance and factory orders reports, all for December, preliminary fourth quarter productivity and costs data and the Federal Reserve's consumer credit data for December round up the economic events of the week. 
 
Personal income in the U.S. rose in line with economist estimates in the month of December, according to a report released by the Commerce Department , although the report also said personal spending came in virtually unchanged.
 
The report said personal income climbed by 0.3 percent in December, matching the increase seen in November as well as economist estimates. Meanwhile, the Commerce Department said personal spending edged down by less than 0.1 percent in December after rising by 0.5 percent in the previous month. Spending had been expected to inch up by 0.1 percent.
 
The Commerce Department will also release its construction spending report for December at 10 am ET. The consensus estimate calls for a 0.6 percent month-over-month increase in spending for the month. 

Construction spending edged down 0.4 percent month-over-month in November, while economists expected a 0.7 percent increase for the month. Construction spending for October was downwardly revised to show 0.3 percent growth compared to the 1 percent increase estimated initially. Annually, construction spending was up 10.5 percent. 
 
Spending on private construction edged down 0.2 percent month-over-month, while public construction spending was down a steeper 1 percent. In the private category, non-residential construction spending fell 0.7 percent compared to a 0.3 percent increase in residential construction spending. 
 
Markit is set to release the final estimate of its U.S. manufacturing PMI for January at 9:45 am ET. Economists expect the index to improve to 52.6 in January from 51.2 in December, although softer than the flash estimate of 52.7. 
 
Also at 10 am ET, the Institute for Supply Management is due to release the results of its manufacturing survey for January. Economists expect the manufacturing PMI based on the survey to edge up to 48.3 from 48.2 in December. 
 
Manufacturing activity contracted for the second straight month in December, with the rate of contraction quickening. The PMI eased 0.4 points to 48.2, while economists expected a small increase to 49.2. 
 
The inner details were also lackluster. The new orders index rose 0.3 points to 49.2 and the production index climbed 0.6 points to 49.8 but both continued to indicate contraction. The employment index fell 3.2 points to 48.1, and the order backlogs index dipped 2 points to 41. Of the 18 industries surveyed, 10 reported contraction and 2 reported stagnation, while 6 expanded. 
 
Federal Reserve Vice Chair?Stanley Fischer?is scheduled to speak in New York at 1 pm ET. 
 
Stocks in Focus 

Abbott Labs (ABT) agreed to acquire Alere Inc. (ALR) in a deal with an equity value of $5.8 billion. Abbott will pay $56 per Alere share or a 50% premium over last Friday's closing price.
 
Dominion Resources (D) has agreed to acquire natural gas company Questar Corp. (STR) in an all-cash transaction valued at about $4.4 billion. Dominion noted that Questar would provide enhanced geographic diversity to its natural gas operations. 

Aetna (AET) reported better than expected fourth quarter results. Cardinal Health (CAH) reported second quarter results and reaffirmed its in line 2016 guidance.

Sohu.com (SOHU) reported an adjusted loss for its fourth quarter, which was narrower than estimates. Revenues edged down and yet beat estimates. However, the first quarter guidance is below estimates. Changyou.com (CYOU) reported better than expected fourth quarter results and issued below-consensus guidance for the first quarter. 
 
Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA) announced the completion of its previously announced acquisition of Precision Castparts (PCP) for $235 per share in an all cash deal, valued at $37.2 billion in total, including outstanding net debt. 
 
Alphabet (GOOGL), Anadarko Petroleum (APC), Broadcom (BRCM), General Growth (GGP), Mattel (MAT), Principal Financial (PFG), Rent-A-Center (RCII) and Tesoro (TSO) are among the notable companies due to release their quarterly results after the close of trading.

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