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Market Analysis

Concerns About Re-escalation Of U.S.-Iran War May Weigh On Wall Street

By RTTNews Staff Writer   ✉   | Published:   | Follow Us On Google News

The major U.S. index futures are currently pointing to a lower open on Monday, with stocks likely to give back ground after turning in a strong performance last week.

Concerns about a re-escalation of the conflict in the Middle East are likely to weigh on Wall Street after weekend talks between the U.S. and Iran failed to produce an agreement.

"They have chosen not to accept our terms," U.S. Vice President JD Vance said in a brief news conference but left open the possibility that terms could still be reached. Iran said that "unreasonable U.S. demands" prevented the progress of the negotiations.

A spike by the price of crude oil is also likely to generate early selling pressure, with crude oil futures jumping back above $100 a barrel.

The surge in crude oil prices comes after President Donald Trump said the U.S. would blockade the vital Strait of Hormuz following the breakdown of negotiations with Iran.

"Effective immediately, the United States Navy, the Finest in the World, will begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz," Trump said in a post on Truth Social.

Trump also said the U.S. military is "locked and loaded" and prepared to "finish up the little that is left of Iran" at an "appropriate moment."

"Markets are once again being pulled between competing forces, with geopolitical escalation in the Middle East reintroducing uncertainty just as investors turn their focus toward the start of earnings season," said Daniela Hathorn, Senior Market Analyst at Capital.com.

She added, "After a brief period of relief following ceasefire hopes, the breakdown in talks and the emergence of a 'blockade of the blockade' strategy by the US has pushed the narrative back toward duration risk: how long this conflict will last and how deeply it will impact the global economy."

After recovering from an initial pullback to end Thursday's session mostly higher, stocks turned in a relatively lackluster performance during trading on Friday. The major averages fluctuated over the course of the session before closing mixed.

While the tech-heavy Nasdaq climbed 80.48 points or 0.4 percent to a more than one-month closing high of 22,902.89, the S&P 500 edged down 7.77 points or 0.1 percent to 6,816.89 and the Dow slid 269.23 points or 0.6 percent to 47,916.57.

Despite the mixed performance on the day, the major averages all posted strong gains for the week due largely to the rally seen on Wednesday. The Nasdaq spiked by 4.7 percent, while the S&P 500 surged by 3.6 percent and the Dow jumped by 3.0 percent.

The pullback by the Dow partly reflected a slump by shares of Salesforce (CRM), with the cloud-based software company tumbling by 3.5 percent. Dow components Nike (NKE), IBM Corp. (IBM) and Verizon (VZ) also showed notable moves to the downside.

Meanwhile, the lackluster performance by the broader markets came amid lingering about whether the fragile ceasefire in the Middle East will hold.

Ahead of negotiations between the U.S. and Iran in Pakistan over the weekend, President Donald Trump said Iran is doing a "very poor job" of allowing oil to go through the Strait of Hormuz, adding, "That is not the agreement we have!"

Trump also responded to reports indicating Iran is charging fees to tankers going through the vital waterway, saying, "They better not be and, if they are, they better stop now!"

"The Iranians don't seem to realize they have no cards, other than a short term extortion of the World by using International Waterways. The only reason they are alive today is to negotiate!" Trump said in a subsequent post.

Meanwhile, traders largely shrugged off a report from the University of Michigan showing a significant deterioration in U.S. consumer sentiment in the month of April.

The University of Michigan said its consumer sentiment index plunged to 47.6 in April after falling to 53.3 in March. Economists had expected the index to dip to 52.0.

The index tumbled to its lowest level on record amid concerns about the war with Iran and a surge in year-ahead inflation expectations.

A separate report released by the Labor Department showed consumer prices advanced by 0.9 percent in March, in line with economist estimates.

Reflecting the lackluster performance by the broader markets, most of the major sectors ended the day showing only modest moves.

Semiconductor stocks showed a significant move to the upside, however, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surging by 2.3 percent to a record closing high.

Gold and computer hardware stocks also turned in strong performances on the day, while software, biotechnology and healthcare stocks saw considerable weakness.

Commodity, Currency Markets

Crude oil futures are soaring $7.57 to $104.14 a barrel after tumbling $1.30 to $96.57 a barrel last Friday. Meanwhile, after falling $30.60 to $4,787.40 an ounce in the previous session, gold futures are slumping $49.70 to $4,737.70 an ounce.

On the currency front, the U.S. dollar is trading at 159.78 yen versus the 159.29 yen it fetched at the close of New York trading on Friday. Against the euro, the dollar is trading at $1.1689 compared to last Friday's $1.1719.

Asia

Asian stocks fell on Monday after weekend negotiations between the United States and Iran aimed at ending six weeks of war concluded without an agreement.

"They have chosen not to accept our terms," U.S. Vice President JD Vance said in a brief news conference but left open the possibility that terms could still be reached.

Iran said that "unreasonable U.S. demands" prevented the progress of the negotiations. Adding to investor anxiety, President Donald Trump said the U.S. Navy will blockade the Strait of Hormuz until Iran relents.

With the Middle East conflict now in its second month, the Asian Development Bank warned in a report that the economies of Asian countries will face a slowdown in growth even if oil prices remain relatively stable.

The dollar strengthened on renewed geopolitical tensions and gold fell toward $4,700 an ounce, while Brent crude prices surged 7 percent to around $102 a barrel.

China's Shanghai Composite Index recovered from an early slide to end marginally higher at 3,988.56. Ahead of his scheduled visit to Beijing next month, Trump on Sunday threatened China with a 50 percent new tariff if Beijing provides military support to Iran during the U.S.-Israeli war. Later, he made an unexpected pitch to China, offering to supply oil at competitive rates.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell 0.9 percent to 25,660.85 amid ongoing Middle East tensions and a rebound in oil prices.

Japanese markets fell notably, with the Nikkei 225 Index closing 0.7 percent lower at 56,502.77, dragged down by artificial intelligence and semiconductor stocks. The broader Topix Index ended down 0.5 percent at 3,723.01.

Seoul stocks declined on escalating tensions around the Strait of Hormuz. The Kospi dropped 0.9 percent to 5,808.62, dragged down by tech and auto stocks. Samsung Electronics tumbled 2.4 percent and Hyundai Motor lost 2.3 percent.

Australian markets ended slightly lower on concerns that the Middle East conflict may last longer than feared. The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index dipped 0.4 percent to 8,926, while the broader All Ordinaries Index ended down 0.5 percent at 9,113.40.

Across the Tasman, New Zealand's benchmark S&P/NZX-50 Index slumped 1.2 percent to 13,020.18 after a survey showed activity in the country's services sector hit a 10-month low in March.

A2 Milk shares plunged 12.4 percent after the infant formula supplier lowered its revenue and earnings guidance.

Europe

European shares have moved mostly lower on Monday after weekend peace talks in Islamabad failed and the U.S. Navy moved to block maritime traffic to and from Iran through the Strait of Hormuz.

Rising tensions pushed Brent crude prices above $102 a barrel, re-igniting inflation and interest-rate concerns.

The German DAX Index is down by 1.2 percent, the French CAC 40 Index is down by 0.9 percent and the U.K.'s FTSE 100 Index is down by 0.5 percent.

Vistry Group has tumbled after the housebuilder appointed company insider Adam Daniels as its new chief executive.

Electricity and gas utility firm National Grid has also moved to the downside after releasing a pre-close update ahead of its full-year results.

Meanwhile, Swiss industrial leader Georg Fischer has advanced after signing a contract worth approximately CHF 100 million.

Halma shares have also risen in London after the prominent player in the electronics and appliances sector acquired California-based Surgistar, a manufacturer of ophthalmic surgical instruments and devices, for $90 million.

U.S. Economic News

The National Association of Realtors is due to release its report on existing home sales in the month of March at 10 am ET. Existing home sales are expected to dip to an annual rate of 4.08 million.

At 6:20 pm ET, Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran is due to participate in a conversation at the Symposium on Building the Financial System of the 21st Century: An Agenda for Europe and the United States.

For comments and feedback contact: editorial@rttnews.com

Market Analysis

Global Economics Weekly Update: April 20 – April 24, 2026

April 24, 2026 15:15 ET
Economics news flow was relatively light this week even as the conflict in the Middle East continued, raising concerns for policymakers. In the U.S., spending data, initial jobless claims and pending home sales were the highlights. Business confidence in the biggest euro area economy was in focus in Europe. Inflation data from Japan gained attention in Asia.