Commenting on Japan's September trade data released on Thursday, BNP Paribas said that the revival of Japanese exports in the coming months is dependant on the strength of recovery of the other Asian economies, especially China.
The Ministry of Finance announced earlier in the day that exports had decreased 30.7% year-on-year in September, slower than the 36% decline in the previous month. On a monthly basis, nominal exports dropped 0.8% from the previous month, largely due to the yen's appreciation. But factoring out the effects of the exchange rate, estimates show that real exports were up 4.5% in September, the sixth straight month of increase. In the third quarter, real exports grew 7.5% sequentially compared to the 10.7% increase in the previous quarter.
French firm BNP Paribas said that Japanese exports are dampened by a multitude of factors such as the waning impact of overseas inventory replenishment, the fast fading effects of the stimulus measures adopted around the world and the yen's appreciation. Moreover, demand for Japan's primary export products including cars and electronics remain sluggish, with the recovery in the U.S. and European economies yet to gather pace.
On the other hand, the robust recovery of major Asian economies led by China provides optimism for Japanese exporters. With China being Japan's largest trading partner at present, the firm said that the fortune of Japanese exporters seem to be in a tug-of-war between the downside factors mentioned earlier and the upside factors such as the revival of demand in Asia.
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June 12, 2026 17:14 ET Major central bank action was the focus this week in economic news. The European Central Bank became the first major central bank to move in response to the rising inflationary pressures in the backdrop of the conflict in the Middle East. In North America, the U.S. inflation and trade data as well as Canada’s central bank decision gained attention. The Chinese trade data was the main news in Asia.