At the outset, there are several positive aspects that could boost investor sentiment in the Indian market next week. On Saturday, India has got the historic NSG waiver after the member countries approved a clean waiver to India. After protracted negotiations, the Nuclear Suppliers Group adopted by consensus, a US initiative to lift a 34-year-old embargo on nuclear trade with India. This is likely to trigger buying interest when the market reopens for trading on Monday. Additionally, a softening trend in the price of oil, favorable reports on the monsoon front and a decline in the wholesale inflation growth rate over the last two weeks are likely to prop up positive sentiment.
However, cues from global markets may continue to weigh on Indian market. On Friday, the market overlooked the decline in wholesale inflation rate and fell sharply tracking weakness in the rest of the global markets.
Markets across the world declined sharply last week, as concerns over the ability of the US economy to stage a recovery impacted investor sentiment. The US markets posted its steepest decline in more than two months on Thursday following an unexpected jump in the number of filings for jobless benefits and the 33,000 job losses reported by the private sector in August. However on Friday, the US stocks ended mixed after seeing significant selling pressure earlier in the day. A disappointing monthly employment report weighed on market movement, but the markets pared their losses as some investors looked for bargains in the afternoon.
The wholesale inflation rose 12.34% in the week ended August 23 compared to a growth of 12.40% the previous week. Earlier, the wholesale inflation had declined to 12.40% from 12.63%. However, the wholesale inflation remains far above the RBI's target estimate of 7% by the end of this fiscal year. Analysts expect the RBI to continue with its hawkish monetary policy during its policy review meeting in October.
A sharp fall in crude oil prices from a record high of $147.27 a barrel in July to the current $106.23, certainly augurs well for the Indian economy. As India imports nearly 70% of its oil requirements, a further retreat in the price of oil to below $100 a barrel if any would certainly help the government in reigning in inflation. In the near term, the meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on Tuesday will have significant impact on the movement of oil prices. Since OPEC's 13 members account for about 40% of the worlds oil production, the cartel's decision whether or not to change the production levels could show on oil prices.
Last week, the market started on a positive note tracking declines in the price of oil. However, the gains were wiped out following a setback in the rest of the global markets. Additionally, traders remained cautious ahead of the outcome of the NSG meeting on the Indo-US nuclear deal. Investors overlooked the decline in the wholesale inflation rate for a second week in a row. The BSE Sensex lost 80.70 points or 0.55% and the S&P CNX Nifty shed 7.70 points or 0.17%.
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June 12, 2026 17:14 ET Major central bank action was the focus this week in economic news. The European Central Bank became the first major central bank to move in response to the rising inflationary pressures in the backdrop of the conflict in the Middle East. In North America, the U.S. inflation and trade data as well as Canada’s central bank decision gained attention. The Chinese trade data was the main news in Asia.