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"Green Zone" Should Have Strong Opening As "Alice" Stays Number One

By RTTNews Staff Writer   ✉  | Published:  | Google News Follow Us  | Join Us

Coming off far and away the biggest weekend of the year so far, "Alice in Wonderland" should be a lock to remain the number one draw for the second straight weekend. R-rated action-thriller "Green Zone" also opens at more than 3,000 theaters this weekend, though, as Matt Damon hopes to continue his commercial success in the espionage subgenre.

Also opening this weekend are comedies "She's Out of My League" and "Our Family Wedding," though neither seems to be primed for a big opening. The fourth wide release is romantic drama "Remember Me," which has a moderate release size of just over 2,200 theaters and brings with it minimal overall expectations.

Teaming back up with Paul Greengrass, the director of the last two "Bourne" films, Matt Damon is in familiar territory. The main difference between "Bourne" and "Green Zone" in terms of commercial appeal, however, is the R-rating that "Green Zone" carries, which ostensibly eliminates the lucrative younger teenage demographic. "Green Zone" also lacks the name recognition of "Bourne," which has created a name for itself as one of the most lucrative and well-received action series in recent years.

But Matt Damon is still a big name and the promise of slick action should be enough to secure a sizeable opening weekend. Opening at more than 3,000 theaters, "Green Zone" also doesn't have a tremendous amount of direct competition, as the other wide openings are in different genres and last week's big opening, "Alice," is aimed predominately at family audiences.

R-rated action flicks are still fairly difficult to gauge, though, and it seems unlikely that "Green Zone" is in line for a huge weekend. An opening intake somewhere in the neighborhood of $24 to $28 million seems likely for Damon's latest.

No matter how well "Green Zone" does, though, "Alice in Wonderland" will likely have its second consecutive weekend as the number one movie in the United States. Enthralled by another chance to see a big-budget 3-D release, audiences flocked to "Alice" last weekend, helping it earn $116 million and solidifying it as a sizeable box office success for distributor Disney/Buena Vista. With another weekend of minimal direct competition, "Alice" should be able to pull in somewhere around $55 to $60 million and remain the number one overall draw.

The second widest release of the weekend - at just fewer than 3,000 theaters - is R-rated comedy "She's Out of My League." "She's Out of My League" lacks the big name lead that "Green Zone" boasts but could appeal nicely to younger adult audiences.

But despite the gargantuan numbers of last year's R-rated comedy "The Hangover," tremendously lucrative R-rated comedies are still the exception rather than the norm. "She's Out of My League" could pull in as much as $15 million this weekend, though much more than that seems unlikely at this point.

Somewhat splitting audiences with "She's Out of My League" will also be "Remember Me," a romantic drama starring Robert Pattinson and Emilie de Ravin. "Remember Me" has several things going against it this weekend, however, which will likely limit its opening earning potential.

"Remember Me" is just the third widest release of the weekend, placing it at an obvious disadvantage, but it is also getting distributed by Summit, which doesn't have a great track record for releases outside of "The Twilight Saga." Getting released at roughly 2,200 theaters this weekend, "Remember Me" should earn somewhere in the $10 to $12 million range.

The most obscure wide release of the weekend, though, is surely "Our Family Wedding," a PG-13 comedy from distributor Fox Searchlight. Despite a somewhat recognizable cast in Academy Award Winner Forrest Whitaker and America Ferrara, "Our family Wedding" has too much overall competition for it to post much of a weekend, and a weekend total of well short of $10 million is expected. With a release of only 1,600 theaters, however, an intake of $7 or $8 million would be a fairly decent number for a small release without much fanfare.

RTT Box Office Predictions For 3/12-3/14 (In Millions):

1) Alice in Wonderland (Buena Vista/Disney): $60

2) Green Zone (Universal): $24

3) She's Out of My League (Paramount): $13

4) Remember Me (Summit): $11.5

5) Our Family Wedding (Fox Searchlight): $7

6) Shutter Island (Paramount): $6.5

7) Brooklyn's Finest (Overture Films): $6

8) Avatar (Fox): $5

9) Cop Out (Warner Brothers): $4.5

10) The Crazies (Overture): $4

For comments and feedback contact: editorial@rttnews.com

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