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'The Avengers' Should Hold Off 'Dark Shadows' Atop Box Office

By RTTNews Staff Writer   ✉  | Published:  | Google News Follow Us  | Join Us

Coming off of a record breaking $207 million opening, smash hit "The Avengers" is in position to land as the top box office draw once again this weekend, even with the wide release of Tim Burton's "Dark Shadows." Starring Johnny Depp, "Dark Shadows" is a major release from Warner Brothers, but "The Avengers" has too much momentum right now to slip from the top box office slot. Comedy/drama "Girl in Progress" will also hit theaters, but a limited 322-theater release could keep it out of the top ten.

Over the years, director Tim Burton has teamed up with Johnny Depp for seven movies before "Dark Shadows," many of which ended up as blockbusters. Though acclaimed films like "Ed Wood" and "Edward Scissorhands" struggled to find mainstream audiences, "Charlie and the Chocolate Factory" and "Alice in Wonderland" were both enormous worldwide hits, helping make the Burton/Depp duo among the most bankable tandems in the movies.

But while "Charlie" and "Alice" both had the family demographic to appeal to due to their PG ratings, PG-13 "Dark Shadows" will have to appeal to older audiences, limiting its overall potential. With "The Avengers" reaching for the same target audience, "Dark Shadows" is a tough sell this weekend and lukewarm reviews won't make it any easier. Though an aggressive marketing push and a major star should help at least get it off the ground, a second place finish in the $40 to $45 million range looks like the ceiling for "Dark Shadows" right now.

Even as "Dark Shadows" hopes to take a sizable segment of the mainstream demographic, "The Avengers" is in position for another dominant weekend. When the final totals were in for "The Avengers" last weekend, the long-awaited superhero smash-up ended up with an eye-popping $207 million in opening revenue, shattering the previous record of $169 million set by "Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 2."

With strong critical support and outstanding audience marks, "The Avengers" should be in good shape well beyond its opening weekend, which is something that many of the biggest releases struggle with. Even with a likely drop of more than 50% this weekend, "The Avengers" should still earn somewhere around $90 million, a total that should be well ahead of the opening of "Dark Shadows."

Numbers overseas have also been just as impressive for "The Avengers," propelling the superhero smash-up to more than $750 million worldwide already. Without another pure action movie hitting theaters until May 18th with "Battleship," "The Avengers" should continue to do some big damage throughout the rest of the month and is just about a lock to be the fastest release to $1 billion worldwide. "The Avengers" is also on pace to surpass "The Dark Knight" to sit behind "Titanic" and "Avatar" as the third highest grossing domestic film of all-time.

As "Dark Shadows" and "The Avengers" continue to pull in mainstream audiences in droves, "Girl in Progress" might sneak into the bottom portion of the top ten, though its overall box office potential seems extremely limited. Starring Eva Mendes and Matthew Modine, "Girl in Progress" has received mostly negative reviews and distributor Lionsgate hasn't exactly unrolled the red carpet, which suggests that its stay in theaters will be a short one. Hitting roughly 322 theaters this weekend, comedy/drama "Girl in Progress" could pull in somewhere in the $1 to $1.5 million range and a major expansion in the future doesn't seem likely.

Next weekend, action-thriller "Battleship" should give "The Avengers" a run at the top of the charts, though "The Avengers" should remain a major factor at the box office throughout the rest of May. Opening on Wednesday, May 16th, Sacha Baron Cohen's comedy "The Dictator" will also be hitting theaters in wide release looking to find the same adult audiences that made "Borat" a smash hit in 2006. Romantic comedy "What to Expect When You're Expecting" will also get launched and has a steady built-in audience that should help get it off the ground opening weekend.

RTT Box Office Predictions for 5/11/12 - 5/13/12 (In Millions):

1. The Avengers (Disney): $90

2. Dark Shadows (Warner Brothers): $41

3. Think Like a Man (Sony/Screen Gems): $4

4. The Hunger Games (Lionsgate): $3.3

5. The Lucky One (Warner Brothers): $2.7

6. The Pirates! Band of Misfits (Sony/Columbia): $2.6

7. The Five-Year Engagement (Universal): $2.5

8. The Raven (Relativity): $1.8

9. Safe (Lionsgate): $1.2

10. Girl in Progress (Lionsgate): $1.2

For comments and feedback contact: editorial@rttnews.com

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