After two weekends of "Gone Girl" leading the way, Brad Pitt's World War II drama "Fury" looks to have an excellent shot to make it to the top of the box office, extending Pitt's streak of strong performing R-rated dramas in recent years. Also getting launched this weekend will be animated "The Book of Life," though a subdued weekend seems likely for the Fox release as it reaches roughly 3,000 total venues around the country.
The final wide release of the weekend, PG-13 romantic drama "The Best of Me," is another title that should be able to make it into the top five, but it too isn't likely to have an enormous first weekend with minimal buzz leading into its opening.
Though not every World War II movie has been a major hit at the box office, there have been quite a few different commercial success stories over the years, including Brad Pitt's recent Quentin Tarantino collaboration, "Inglourious Basterds." Released in late-August, "Inglourious Basterds" rode very strong critical support and Pitt's star power to $38 million in domestic opening revenue and $120 million overall in the U.S., making it one of the biggest R-rated hits of 2009 and one of the top-performing WWII releases ever.
This time around, Pitt teams with "End of Watch" director David Ayer for another big-budget war film aimed at a major audience, as Sony is launching it at an estimated 3,000 venues and clearly is expecting to see some commercial upside. While early reviews are nowhere near as positive as they were for "Inglourious Basterds" and it won't have Tarantino's cult audience, "Fury" has a clear-cut, mostly male demographic to appeal to and shouldn't have too much trouble finding the intended adult crowds.
The only real downside for "Fury" is that it will have to compete with "Gone Girl," which is still a major draw for adults and could remain in the top five for a couple more weekends. Still, with some star power in the lead and some overall good reviews, look for "Fury" to earn somewhere close to $28-$30 million this weekend - roughly 75% of the "Inglourious Basterds" opening.
Taking aim at a much different audience over the weekend will be "The Book of Life," an animated film featuring the voices of Channing Tatum and Zoe Saldana. With a 3,000-theater release and a strong marketing push from Fox, the commercial expectations are clearly there, though October isn't typically a big month for family-geared releases.
So far, there have only been two $30 million animated openings in October, with the most recent happening in 2011 with the $34 million opening of "Puss in Boots." But without the ties to a major franchise like "Shrek" and competition from "Alexander and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day" this weekend, "The Book of Life" should be in store for a fairly modest opening in the neighborhood of $20-$25 million.
Also hitting theaters over the weekend will be novelist Nicholas Sparks' latest adaptation "The Best of Me," though a spotty release record from distributor Relativity and plenty of competition suggests it doesn't have a great deal of opening potential. So far in Relativity's history, its biggest opening at less than 2,700 theaters was "Oculus," which managed only $12 million this past April. Even with a PG-13 rating that could attract some younger crowds, "The Best of Me" will likely lose a percentage of date audiences to "Gone Girl," making for a difficult first weekend in theaters.
"The Best of Me" does at least bring somewhat of a built-in audience familiar with Sparks, though less than half of his releases have earned $20 million opening weekend and "The Best of Me" doesn't seem likely to buck that trend. With Sparks' releases averaging $18 million in opening revenue, look for "The Best of Me" to finish slightly below that mark with somewhere closer to $15 million this weekend.
Next weekend, a couple of new wide releases will take aim at adult audiences, with Keanu Reeves-starring action release "John Wick" leading the way. While "John Wick" tries to turn very good early reviews into a strong box office run, PG-13 horror-thriller "Ouija" will be looking to pick up where "Annabelle" left off leading up to Halloween. Also getting launched will be football drama "23 Blast," though a very limited 600-venue release doesn't appear to be a vote of confidence from distributor Ocean Avenue Entertainment.
RTT Box Office Predictions for 10/17/14 - 10/19/14 (in millions):
1) Fury (Sony): $28
2) The Book of Life (Fox): $20
3) Gone Girl (Fox): $16
4) The Best of Me (Relativity): $14
5) Dracula Untold (Universal): $12
6) Alexander and the Terrible, Horrible, No Good, Very Bad Day (Disney): $11
7) Annabelle (Warner Bros.): $8
8) The Judge (Warner Bros.): $7.8
9) The Equalizer (Sony/Columbia): $5
10) The Maze Runner (Fox): $4.1
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