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ADB Cuts Developing Asia's Growth Outlook

asiandevelopmentbank sept25 10dec19 lt

The Asian Development Bank downgraded its Developing Asia's growth projections citing challenging global environment.

In the Asian Development Outlook 2019 Supplement, released Wednesday, the lender said developing Asia will grow 5.2 percent in both 2019 and 2020. The projection for 2019 was lowered from 5.4 percent and that for next year from 5.5 percent.

Growth in developing Asia continues to moderate as domestic investment weakens under a more challenging external environment with slowing global trade and economic activity, protracted trade tensions between the United States and China, and a global downturn in electronics, the ADB noted.

Growth forecasts for East Asia were downgraded to 5.4 percent in 2019 and 5.2 percent in 2020 as China and the Republic of Korea endure continuing trade tensions and slowing domestic investment.

Given recent deceleration, China was expected to expand 6.1 percent in 2019 versus prior estimate of 6.2 percent, as domestic demand weakened and external headwinds stiffened.

With continuing downward pressure, growth is expected to ease to 5.8 percent next year but could expand faster if agreement emerges from trade negotiations between the US and China, which would lift consumer and investor confidence. The outlook for 2020 was downgraded from 6 percent.

The South Asian GDP growth forecast for 2019 was trimmed to 5.1 percent from 6.2 percent in the Update, and for 2020 to 6.1 percent from 6.7 percent.

India's growth projections were lowered to 5.1 percent in the fiscal year 2019 and to 6.5 percent in FY 2020.

Southeast Asia's growth outlook was revised down to 4.4 percent for this year from 4.5 percent in the Update and maintained at 4.7 percent for 2020.

Meanwhile, the projected growth rate in Central Asia as a whole was raised to 4.6 percent for 2019 from 4.4 percent in the Update and to 4.5 percent for 2020 from 4.3 percent.

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