Generative artificial intelligence or AI technologies, including the highly popular ChatGPT, could expose around 300 million full-time jobs around the world to automation, a report by Goldman Sachs predicts, deepening the rising fears about job security.
According to a new research report by GS economists, "The Potentially Large Effects of Artificial Intelligence on Economic Growth", 18% of work globally could be automated by AI, with larger effects in developed markets than in emerging markets. They also believe that AI could replace 7% of U.S. jobs.
The report said, "If generative AI delivers on its promised capabilities, the labor market could face significant disruption. Using data on occupational tasks in both the US and Europe, we find that roughly two-thirds of current jobs are exposed to some degree of AI automation, and that generative AI could substitute up to one-fourth of current work."
Meanwhile, it added that although the impact of AI on the labor market is likely to be significant, most jobs and industries are only partially exposed to automation and are thus more likely to be complemented rather than substituted by AI.
On the positive side, AI could eventually increase annual global GDP by 7%.
The report said worker displacement from automation has historically been offset by creation of new jobs, and the emergence of new occupations following technological innovations accounts for the vast majority of long-run employment growth.
The combination of significant labor cost savings, new job creation, and higher productivity for non-displaced workers raises the possibility of a productivity boom that raises economic growth substantially. However, the timing of such a boom is hard to predict, the report said.
Economists also estimate that generative AI could raise annual US labor productivity growth by just under 11/2pp over a 10-year period following widespread adoption.
Among generative AI technologies currently in focus, ChatGPT chatbot developed by OpenAI is a natural language processing tool that allows human-like conversations. ChatGPT surpassed 1 million users in just 5 days, the fastest that any company has ever reached this benchmark.
DALL-E, a deep learning model, which is also developed by OpenAI, can create realistic images and art from a description in natural languages. Further, Google AI chatbot LaMDA, short for "Language Model for Dialogue Applications", offers a family of conversational large language models.
The report noted that these recently emerged generative AI technologies, compared to its predecessor machine learning methods such as analytical AI, are generalized rather than specialized use cases. They have the ability to generate novel, human-like output rather than merely describe or interpret existing information, and also have approachable interfaces to understand and respond with natural language, images, audio, and video.
Amid the significant uncertainty around its potential, generative AI shows major advancement with potentially large macroeconomic effects. Generative AI holds the ability to generate content that is indistinguishable from human-created output, and also breaks down communication barriers between humans and machines.
Software giant Microsoft in January had announced a new multiyear, multibillion-dollar investment with ChatGPT-maker OpenAI aiming to accelerate AI breakthroughs to ensure these benefits are broadly shared with the world.
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