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Market Analysis

Beyond the Number

Markets May See Gains on Greece Bailout Hopes

February 13, 2012 09:05 ET

The major U.S. index futures are pointing to higher opening on Monday, with sentiment receiving a boost from the developments in Greece. The approval of an austerity package by the Greek Parliament on Sunday has increased hopes that the beleaguered nation will receive financing on time to avert a disorderly collapse, thereby preserving the integrity euro area. The Eurogroup is scheduled to meet on Wednesday to decide on the financial package for Greece and by that deadline, the Troika would require the nation's political leaders to give a firm commitment to religiously implement the approved austerity measures.

Earlier in the day, Italy auctioned 12 billion euros worth of treasury bills and Germany auctioned 3.1 billion euros worth of 6-month bubills on benign terms. In the absence of any major catalysts, markets' Greek focus is set to continue, although apprehension ahead of some key domestic data may lead to caution.

U.S. stocks closed the week ended February 10th modestly lower amid see-sawing sentiment about deals being struck by Greece, among domestic political parties to endorse austerity measures and also with its private sector creditors.

Last Monday, the major averages moved about in a lackluster fashion, as Greek politicians continued to wrangle over the austerity measures. Hopes for a Greek deal brightened on Tuesday, sending the major averages modestly higher.

Stocks closed modestly higher on Wednesday even as doubts resurfaced over whether the coalition government headed by Prime Minister Lucas Papademos can convince political parties about the necessity for a consensus over the austerity measures. News concerning the clinching of a deal by Greece led to a higher close on Thursday despite the release of a report showing an unexpected decrease in jobless claims. Sentiment turned bleak on Friday, sending stocks moderately lower.

For the week, the Dow Industrials fell 0.47 percent, the S&P 500 Index slipped 0.17 percent and the Nasdaq Composite Index edged down 0.06 percent.



Among the sector indexes, the NYSE Arca Airline Index slipped 4.48 percent for the week, while the NYSE Arca Biotechnology Index declined 2.18 percent and the Dow Jones Transportation Average moved down 2.14 percent.

Commodity, Currency Focus

Crude oil futures are rising $1.05 to $99.72 a barrel after advancing $0.83 or 0.85 percent to $98.67 a barrel in the week ended February 10th. Oil rose last week despite the lukewarm sentiment, with the strength of the commodity reflecting the weakness of dollar. The dollar retreated after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke reiterated his pledge of low interest rates.

Gold futures, which declined $15 or 0.86 percent to $1,725.30 an ounce last week, are currently gaining $2.30 to $1,727.60 an ounce.

Among currencies, the U.S. dollar strengthened against the yen in the week ended February 10th, rising 1.28 percent to 77.612 yen. Meanwhile, the euro rose 0.30 percent against the dollar at $1.3198. The euro had breached the 1.33 level intra-week before pulling back and settling modestly higher.

The U.S. dollar is currently trading at 77.60 yen and is valued at $1.3237 versus the euro.

Asia

Most Asian markets closed higher, cheering the Greek parliament’s approval of the austerity measures. Indonesia’s Jakarta Composite Index led the region’s advances with a 1.27 percent rally. Meanwhile, China’s Shanghai Composite Index edged lower, ending down by 0.01 percent.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 average ended 52.01 points or 0.58 percent higher at 8,999 despite the release of a report showing that the domestic economy contracted by more than expected in the December quarter. The GDP fell by an annualized 0.6 percent compared to the previous quarter. Economists had expected a more modest 0.3 percent contraction.

Australia’s All Ordinaries added 36.80 points or 0.85 percent before closing at 4,359 and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index closed at 20,887, up 103.54 points or 0.50 percent.

Europe

The major European markets are also advancing moderately, buoyed by M&A news and the developments in Greece. Vodafone (VOD) confirmed that it is evaluating a bid for Cable & Wireless, with reports suggesting that Vodafone could pay up to 700 million pounds.

U.S. Economic Reports

Main Street will be once again be buzzing with activity in the unfolding week after the relative calm of the previous week. The Commerce Department’s retail sales report for January, the results of the February manufacturing surveys of the New York Federal Reserve and the Philadelphia Federal Reserve, the Federal Reserve’s industrial production report for January, the National Association of Home Builders housing market index for February, the Commerce Department’s housing starts report and the weekly jobless claims report are among the closely watched reports of the week.

Traders may also focus on the minutes of the January FOMC meeting, some Fed speeches, announcements concerning Treasury auctions of 2-year, 5-year and 7-year notes and the Labor Department’s consumer and producer price inflation reports for December. The business inventories report for December and the Conference Board’s leading economic indicators index round up the major economic events of the week.

Retail sales may have perked up in January, given the improvement we have been seeing in the labor and housing markets. Solid January auto sales are expected to have boosted the headline number, while higher gasoline sales may also have lent support.

Higher auto sales also point towards healthy industrial production growth for January. Additionally, firmer metal prices could have lifted mining production, while utility output is expected to have been constrained by unusually warm winter weather.

However, the weather may have benefited housing starts, which could have rebounded in January from the previous month’s 4 percent drop. According to BMO Capital Markets, going forward, residential construction will support rather than restrain the recovery, as demand stabilizes and homebuilders start replenishing lean inventories.

Stocks in Focus

tw telecom (TWTC) announced that the state government of South Carolina has awarded the company a multi-year contract to offer enhanced transmission and co-location services to the state’s agencies and higher educational institutions.

Wintrust Financial (WTFC) announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary has acquired certain assets and liabilities and the banking operations of Charter National Bank and Trust in an FDIC-assisted transaction.

ITT Corp. (ITT) said it is rescheduling the release of its full year and fourth quarter results to February 29th due to the complexities and time required to process and review historical financial data pursuant to the spin-off of its defense and water businesses.

Energen (EGN) announced an agreement to buy Permian Basin’s Wolfberry play in Texas for $65.8 million. The company also said it plans to cut its investment in natural gas production due to low prices.

Charles River (CRL), Cutera (CUTR), Fidelity National Information Services (FIS) and Health Management (HMA) are among the companies due to report their quarterly results after the markets close.

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