The German economy is expected to log fairly strong growth rates in the second half, Commerzbank analyst Simon Junker said Tuesday.
The analyst said the track record of the ZEW economic sentiment indicator as a leading indicator for the German economy is no worse than that of the Ifo business climate index. The more than expected rise in the ZEW indicator in August supports the bank's forecast for a more positive GDP figures in the second half of the year.
Moreover, Junker said an important reason for the marked rise of ZEW economic expectations should lie in the recent positive economic data. Order intake in the industry, exports and, most recently, the second quarter GDP Q2 GDP: all came in much better than universally expected. This provided more fuel for hopes to an end of the recession and ensured a significant improvement in sentiment on the financial markets, where greater doubts had temporarily surfaced one month ago.
With regard to the future movement of the ZEW economic sentiment indicator, the Commerzbank analyst said, "We assume that the upward movement will continue with perceptible increases until this indicator reaches its 'normal' high of about 80 points this autumn."
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June 12, 2026 17:14 ET Major central bank action was the focus this week in economic news. The European Central Bank became the first major central bank to move in response to the rising inflationary pressures in the backdrop of the conflict in the Middle East. In North America, the U.S. inflation and trade data as well as Canada’s central bank decision gained attention. The Chinese trade data was the main news in Asia.