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Market Analysis

Beyond the Number

Sentiment Muted as Traders Await Fed Announcement

January 25, 2012 09:33 ET

The major U.S. index futures are pointing to a mixed opening on Wednesday, as traders exercise caution ahead of the FOMC meeting. Earnings news has been mixed, with Apple’s (AAPL) stellar results offering to the Nasdaq futures, while a few other companies such as AMD (AMD) and Yahoo (YHOO) released insipid results. Traders may focus on other cues as the pending home sales index due to be released shortly after the markets open and the developments over Greece’s talks with its private creditors.

Wall Street experienced another lackluster session on Tuesday, as mixed earnings and concerns surrounding the lack of progress on Greece’s debt talks with its private creditors generated selling pressure in the markets.

The major averages opened lower and traded in negative territory till late morning trading. While the Dow Industrials continued to languish in the red for the rest of the session and the S&P 500 Index was also mostly lower, the Nasdaq Composite nervously moved back and forth across the unchanged line before closing marginally higher.

The Dow Industrials fell 33.07 points or 0.26 percent before closing at 12,676 and the S&P 500 Index ended at 1,315, down 1.35 points or 0.10 percent, while the Nasdaq Composite ended up 2.47 points or 0.09 percent at 2,787.

Seventeen of the thirty Dow components closed lower and 3 stocks closed unchanged, while the remaining 10 stocks ended in positive terrain. McDonald’s (MCD) fell 2.18 percent and Travelers Companies (TRV) slid 3.80 percent after releasing disappointing results. Verizon (VZ) also reacted negatively to its earnings report and peer AT&T (T) also ended lower. Microsoft (MSFT) also lost over 1 percent.

Gold stocks declined sharply, while housing and biotechnology stocks found favor among investors.

Traders may watch out for the Federal Reserve's first of its kind action of releasing fed funds target forecast of the monetary policy committee members. However, there is unlikely to be any change in the rate decision and the language of the statement. The policy statement is due to be released at 12:30 pm ET and Bernanke is scheduled to hold a press briefing at 2:15 am ET.



Commodity, Currency Markets

Crude oil futures are receding $0.81 to $98.14 a barrel after declining $0.63 to $98.95 a barrel on Tuesday. An ounce of gold is valued at $1,653.30, down $11.20 from the previous session’s close of $1,664.50. In the previous session, the precious metal fell $13.80.

Among currencies, the U.S. dollar is trading at 78.08 yen compared to the 77.6675 yen it fetched at the close of New York trading on Tuesday. Against the euro, the dollar is valued at $1.2965 compared to yesterday’s $1.3035.

Asia

The major Asian markets open for trading closed mostly higher, as a tech rally induced by Apple’s earnings and the weakness of domestic currencies encouraged traders. Meanwhile, the Chinese, Hong Kong and Taiwanese markets remained closed.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 average benefited from a rally by export stocks in reaction to the yen’s weakness. The index closed up 98.36 points or 1.12 percent at 8,884. The gains came despite the nation reporting a trade deficit of 205.1 billion yen. For the calendar year, the trade deficit was 2.49 trillion yen, as imports rose 12 percent and exports fell 2.7 percent.

Australia’s All Ordinaries added 42.70 points or 1 percent before closing at 4,329, as traders picked up stocks following the release of a benign inflation report that strengthened hopes of a rate cut.

Europe

European stocks are showing moderate weakness amid the release of some mixed earnings and economic data.

The results of a survey by IfO showed that German business confidence improved in January. The business climate index rose to a 5-month high of 108.3 from 107.3 in December. The current conditions index slipped slightly to 116.3, but the expectations index improved by 2.3 points to 100.9.



On the other hand, U.K. fourth quarter GDP dipped 0.2 percent sequentially, steeper than the 0.1 percent drop expected by economists.


In corporate news, Ericsson (ERIC) reported a decline in its fourth quarter net income to 1.15 billion Swedish Kronor from 4.4 billion Swedish Kronor in the year-ago period. Net sales rose 1 percent to 63.7 billion Swedish Kronor. The results trailed estimates.

German software giant SAP’s (SAP) fourth quarter non-IFRS-based profit rose to 1.28 billion euros from 1.11 billion euros in the year-ago period. Total revenues were up 10 percent to 4.50 billion euros.

For 2012, the company expects non-IFRS software and software-related service revenue growth of 10-12 percent at constant currencies and non-IFRS operating profits of 5.05 billion euros to 5.25 billion euros at constant currencies.

U.S. Economic Reports

The Federal House Finance Agency, or FHFA, is set to release its house price index for November at 10 am ET. The index is a weighted, repeat-sales index that measures average price changes of single-family houses in repeat sales or refinancings on the same properties. Economists expect a 0.1 percent month-over-month drop by the house price index.

Data on Pending Home Sales, which is a leading indicator of housing market activity released by the National Association of Realtors, is due out at 10 AM ET. A pending sale is one in which a contract was signed but not yet closed. Normally, it takes four to six weeks to close a contracted sale. The index is expected to have declined 1 percent in December.



The pending home sales index rose a much better than expected 7.3 percent month-over-month in November following a 10.4 percent increase in October. The index was at the highest level since April 2010. All four regions reported gains.

The Energy Information Administration is scheduled to release its weekly petroleum inventory report for the week ended January 20th at 10:30 am ET.



Crude oil stockpiles fell by 3.4 million barrels to 331.2 million barrels in the week ended January 13th. Despite the drop, inventories were in the upper limit of the average range for this time of the year.

Meanwhile, gasoline stockpiles rose by 3.7 million barrels, remaining in the upper limit of the average range. Distillate inventories edged up by 0.4 million barrels and remained in the middle of the average range.

Refinery capacity utilization averaged 84.6 percent over the four weeks ended January 13th compared to 84.9 percent over the previous four weeks.

Stocks in Focus

Earnings

Apple (AAPL) reported first quarter earnings of $13.87 per share compared to $6.43 per share in the year-ago period. Revenues climbed to $46.33 billion from $26.74 billion last year. For the second quarter, the company expects earnings of $8.50 per share on revenues of $32.5 billion. The results and the guidance were above expectations.

AMD (AMD) reported fourth quarter non-GAAP earnings of 19 cents per share despite reporting a loss of 24 cents per share on a GAAP basis. Revenues came in at $1.69 billion. The earnings exceeded estimates, while the revenues trailed expectations. For the first quarter, the company expects sales to see a sequential drop of 8 percent, plus or minus three percent.

ConocoPhillips’ (COP) fourth quarter adjusted earnings per share were above estimate. In addition, the company said it expects to complete repositioning into two independent companies in the second quarter of 2012.
Boeing’s (BA) fourth quarter profit improved 20 percent from the year-ago quarter. Revenues rose 18 percent, and were above Wall Street view. The company provided earnings and revenue forecast for 2012, which were not very rosy.

Yahoo (YHOO) said its fourth quarter earnings remained flat at 24 cents per share. Revenues, excluding traffic acquisition costs, came in at $1.17 billion, a 3 percent drop. For the first quarter, the company expects revenues, excluding traffic acquisition costs, of $1.025 billion to $1.105 billion.

Steel Dynamics (STLD) reported fourth quarter earnings of 14 cents per share on revenues of $1.9 billion. The earnings exceeded estimates, while the revenues were slightly shy of the consensus estimate.

RockTenn (RKT) reported first quarter adjusted earnings of $1.18 per share on net sales of $2.27 billion. The results trailed expectations.

Altera’s (ALTR) fourth quarter earnings and revenues exceeded estimates despite declining from the year-ago period. However, the company’s first quarter sales guidance was soft.

CA (CA) reported better than expected third quarter results and also lifted its 2012 earnings per share guidance above consensus expectations.

Railroad operator Norfolk Southern’s (NSC) fourth quarter earnings beat estimates, while its revenues were shy of estimates.

Ethan Allen (ETH) reported second quarter adjusted earnings of 30 cents per share on revenues of $183.3 million, up 5.7 percent year-over-year. Analysts estimated earnings of 27 cents per share on revenues of $183.3 million.

Some of the prominent companies that will release their quarterly results after the markets close include Citirix Systems (CTXS), E*Trade Financial (ETFC), Murphy Oil (MUR), Netflix (NFLX), Noble Corp. (NE), Owens-Illinois (OI), SanDisk (SNDK), Stanley Black Decker (SWK), Symantec (SYMC) and Varian Medical Systems (VAR).

Other Corporate News

Nvidia (NVDA) pre-announced that it expects fourth quarter revenues of $950 million, plus or minus 1 percent compared to its earlier guidance of $1.07 billion issued in November. The predicament was attributed to the impact of the floods in Thailand. Analysts estimate revenues of $1.06 million.

Buckeye Technologies (BKI) announced a 17 increase in its regular quarterly dividend to 6 cents per share. The company also reported second quarter adjusted earnings of 69 cents per share on sales of $227 million. While the earnings were above estimates, revenues missed expectations.

Rollins (ROL) said its board approved a 14.3 percent increase in its quarterly dividend to 8 cents per share.

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